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04.09.2019 07:14 AM
Overview of GBP/USD on September 4th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". A small victory for Jeremy Corbyn and the opposition
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4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -46.5133

The GBP/USD currency pair began an upward correction against the backdrop of events in the UK Parliament, which say that Boris Johnson's victory, which he was previously dubbed by the media, is not as unambiguous as it seemed just the day before yesterday. At its first meeting, the British Parliament with 328 votes to 301 decided at the next session (that is, today) to vote for a bill prohibiting leaving the EU without any agreements or agreements. Boris Johnson, in turn, said that if parliamentarians pass the bill, he will raise the issue of re-election to Parliament on the agenda. Thus, the war for Brexit began. In addition to yesterday's events in Parliament, it is worth noting that several courts are considering the legitimacy of Boris Johnson's decision to suspend the work of Parliament for 5 weeks. The deputies themselves are ready to work day and night (in the remaining 5 days), just to prevent a "hard" Brexit, and possibly cancel the extraordinary holidays organized by Johnson. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said that the law on the impossibility of leaving the EU should be adopted as soon as possible. In general, today, September 4, Parliament can strike a powerful blow to the ambitions and desires of Boris Johnson.

How will this affect the pound? We believe it is favorable. The fact that the British parliamentarians are not passive, pretending to be fighting for the country, gives hope for a positive outcome of political battles. If today a law prohibiting withdrawal from the EU without a "deal" is adopted, it will be a small victory for the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, and the pound, which could continue to strengthen against the US currency on a wave of currency market optimism. There is also another important point that will be described in a separate article a little later.

From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair is corrected and maintains a downward trend. However, if the deputies will be able to "win" today, the pound could easily rise to the moving and gain a foothold above it. "Easy" - with the pound, this has not happened for a long time. Thus, we closely follow any news from the Parliament, simultaneously not forgetting about the publication of the index of business activity in the UK services sector for August.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2085

S2 – 1.2024

S3 – 1.1963

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2146

R2 – 1.2207

R3 – 1.2268

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is adjusted. Thus, traders are advised to wait for the end of the current correction. If the pair stays below the moving average, pound sales will be relevant with targets at 1.2024 and 1.1963. However, in a certain scenario, the pound has a good chance of overcoming the moving.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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