GBP/USD 1H

The picture became somewhat clearer on the hourly chart for the pound/dollar pair. The Federal Reserve meeting did not affect the course of trading, but the pair plunged to the support area of 1.2403 - 1.2416, as well as to the Kijun-sen line for the 4-hour timeframe. In addition, the price touched the lower border of the upward channel and rebounded off these three supports, resuming the upward movement. Thus, from the point of view of technical analysis, we got an almost ideal entry point into the market with long positions. In the current situation, and according to the current technical picture, we can only assume a continuation of the upward movement until the GBP/USD pair leaves the upward channel.

No macroeconomic publications in the UK are scheduled for Thursday. Therefore, the macroeconomic background for the pair will be reduced to the report on applications for unemployment benefits in the US (primary and secondary). We believe that the next and an additional several million unemployed in the United States could create additional pressure on the position of the US dollar. However, we should not forget that traders are ignoring almost all the data that comes to their disposal. Thus, we don't expect a strong movement in one direction today. Most likely, the movement will continue with frequent corrections and pullbacks, which will be characterized as a weak trend. In general, do not forget that the UK continues to be dominated by Brexit and its consequences. Only now the negative for the British economy associated with this event will be multiplied by the consequences of the pandemic, which, according to most experts, the British government failed to cope properly. Thus, on April 30, we have two main options for the development of the event:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair is still in the hands of buyers, since the price continues to be located inside the rising channel. The quotes rebounded from the strong support area of 1.2403-1.2416, so now it is advised to trade higher with the goal of the resistance level for the 4-hour 1.2494 chart. In this case, Take Profit can be about 40 points. If the first target is overcome, then the longs can be left open with a target level of volatility of 1.2565. In this case, Take Profit will be about 100 points.

2) Sellers will be able to trade down again only after quotes exit the upward channel and overcome the support area of 1.2403-1.2416 along with the Kijun-sen line. Thus, consolidating is required for 1.2400 (approximately), and after this condition is met, it will be possible to open sell orders with a rather distant target of 1.2240 (support level for the 4-hour timeframe). In this case, Take Profit can be up to 150 points. The intermediate target is 1.2369 - the lower level of volatility on April 30.