4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.
CCI: 167.5141
Well, the epic with the approval of the budget for 2021-2027 and the fund for recovery after the pandemic is over. Now you can forget about it and watch the macroeconomic indicators, which must now start to improve and in light of the fact that a pandemic in Europe retreated and in the background of the fact that the European economy will be given financial assistance, for which the EU will have to pay for almost 40 years. Meanwhile, something very strange and frightening is happening in the currency market right now. The European currency has again jumped up today despite the fact that no interesting reports and news were received today by traders from the EU. We can assume that important information came from overseas. Across the ocean, everything is as before. However, something provoked new purchases of the European currency and at the same time sales of the British pound. As we have already found out, there was no news from Europe today. Therefore, the reasons should still be sought in the United States.
And the first thing that catches your eye is a new speech by the head of the White House, Donald Trump, who decided to resume daily briefings on the "coronavirus". He did it in a way that it would have been better not to have done. The American President continues to make absolutely contradictory statements. For example, today the US leader said that "the situation with the pandemic in America will probably get worse than it is now before it improves". That is, the US President finally realized that the "coronavirus" is not a runny nose or flu. After a series of comments and statements that would have made all the doctors in the world laugh if the situation with the epidemic was not so terrible, Trump is finally showing that he is serious about the virus. And even recommended that all Americans wear masks, despite the fact that previously demonstratively refused to wear this means of protection and did not make any statements that this should be done by the population. However, when the number of cases in America came to 4 million, Trump finally realized that it is necessary to somehow stop the spread of the "Chinese infection". However, Trump himself does not believe that the country needs a new "lockdown". Also, Trump does not believe that it is necessary to tighten the quarantine measures. The US President believes that the economy should recover, not idle. Therefore, health with health, life with life, and everyone should go to work and work so that the American President has an increased chance of being re-elected in November. However, the US leader immediately came under another round of criticism. This time, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is openly feuding with Trump, said that "the president finally admitted his mistakes with words about the need to wear medical masks". Pelosi also called the "coronavirus" the "Trump virus", openly hinting that it is because of the president's inaction that the country has faced such a huge number of diseases and deaths.
Meanwhile, in the US, a serious confrontation is unfolding between the population and Donald Trump, as well as between the authorities of many American states and cities and Donald Trump. Recall that protests and rallies continue in the United States against the background of a racist scandal that took place two months ago. Just yesterday, we said that Trump sent paramilitary units to Portland, Oregon to quell rallies and riots. Trump also complained that the Democrats will ruin the country if Joe Biden comes to power. As an example, he cited the city of Portland, "where rallies have been going on for 50 days, however, the authorities do nothing to suppress them". Now it is reported that in the city of Portland in early July, people arrived in camouflage uniforms without any identification marks. It turned out that these detachments are part of a division of the Ministry of Internal Security, which was created recently. These people have "police" written on their uniforms, however, they are not really police. After several skirmishes between the demonstrators and the military, fierce fighting between them began. As a result, the authorities of the state of Oregon and congressional leaders demanded that Donald Trump withdraw paramilitary units from the state and the city, accusing them of further inciting conflicts. The mayor of Portland, Ted Wheeler, says that before the appearance of the military in the city, all rallies and protests were very peaceful and calm, which is not prohibited by US laws. Skirmishes and mass carnage began to occur exactly when unidentified military forces appeared in the city. However, acting US Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf believes that "these are not peaceful protests, but the protesters want to cause damage to the federal courthouse and law enforcement officers". According to him, the protesters caused damage to the infrastructure of the city, and "the authorities of the city of Portland are absolutely inactive, do not try to stop the crowd, which is armed with bats, firecrackers, pipes, bottles of flammable mixtures and other dangerous things". It is also reported that protests are continuing at this time in 140 American cities. Thus, the United States is now in absolute anarchy, which is absolutely unknown how to end. Well, Trump's position continues to deteriorate in the run-up to the election. Joe Biden, as we have repeatedly said, does not even need to do anything to get ahead of Trump by at least 10%.
On Wednesday, July 22, the European Union again did not have any macroeconomic publications. Thus, we believe that the reasons for this particular movement of the euro/dollar pair are the same. The social crisis in the United States, the economic crisis in the United States, the political crisis and epidemiological crisis. There is nothing more to say. The country is gripped by protests, the number of infections is approaching 4 million, the president does not rule the country, but fights against all his opponents, who are ready to do anything to make sure that the next president is not Trump. These are the current realities of America.
As of Thursday, July 23, only an absolutely secondary report on applications for unemployment benefits will be published in the United States, and there will be no publications at all in the European Union. However, the fundamental background that continues to come from overseas is now enough for the euro currency to continue to grow steadily, and the dollar to fall steadily. From a technical point of view, the upward trend persists, as evidenced by both channels of linear regression. And it is still unclear how the US currency can change the current trend.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of July 23 is 82 pips and is still characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1487 and 1.1651. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a turn of a downward correction within the framework of an upward trend.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1475
S2 – 1.1353
S3 – 1.1230
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1597
R2 – 1.1719
R3 – 1.1841
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues its sharply increased upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to stay in purchases of the euro currency with the goals of 1.1651 and 1.1719, until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downward. It is recommended to open sell orders no earlier than the pair is fixed below the moving average line with the first targets of 1.1353 and 1.1230.
