GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD pair also traded very calmly until the US inflation report was published. The most interesting thing is that in addition to US inflation, reports from the UK were also important for the pound/dollar pair, which were quite a lot in the morning. And not just reports, but significant data. For example, the GDP report for March and for the first quarter were published, which showed that the British economy began to recover at a faster pace in March than the previous month, but the results of the first quarter are still not encouraging at -1.5%. All other reports were less significant. For example, a report on industrial production or a trade balance. The time when it was published is marked with the number "1" on the chart. We closely look at the chart and understand that the most that the markets reacted was after this batch was released (at 30 points). And even then, there are big doubts that all 30 points should be attributed to macroeconomic reasons. In general, we can assume that there was no reaction, since 30 points is a common market noise. Well, the main movements of the pair happened in the US session, when the quotes initially fell, then quickly recovered, and then fell again. It is clear that trading within such a "storm" is extremely inconvenient and impractical. The number "2" marks the time when the inflation report was published. The number "3" is the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, which did not cause any reaction from the markets. It turns out that there weren't any signals processed during the day. No signal during the European session, and there was a rebound from the level of 1.4080 in the US session, but it clearly should not have been worked out (when important reports were released). Therefore, traders have avoided losses today, but they have not earned a single point either.

GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the pound/dollar pair has recently been near the resistance level of 1.4134 and yesterday was no exception. A decline followed closer to its end, and in total, the pair lost around 40 points during the day. Thus, even with respect to the final round of upward movement, the correction is low. Recall that if we consider the fundamental background for the British currency as a whole, then the pound should be trading near the level of 1.3000, but not near the 41st level. However, the foundation and macroeconomics are still ignored, while the speculative factor and the fact that the US economy is being injected with trillions of dollars remain in the work, which creates double pressure on the US dollar. We continue to pay attention to the most important levels and lines: 1.4008, 1.4080, 1.4181 and 1.4240. Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines are still very far from the price. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. In addition to the report on claims for unemployment benefits and the producer price index in the United States, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, who speaks almost every day this week, is also scheduled on Thursday. The first two of his speeches did not give absolutely any new information to the markets, therefore there was no reaction to them. Most likely, it will be the same today.

We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.

COT report

The GBP/USD pair rose by 15 points during the last reporting week (April 27-May 3). A slight change in price, but the pair did not stand still. Professional traders closed 7,600 buy contracts and opened almost 2,000 sell contracts during the same period of time. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders has decreased by almost 10,000 contracts, which is a lot for the British currency. In other words, the mood of the major players has become less bullish. Now let's take a look at the chart of the movement of the pound/dollar pair and note that there is no weakening of the upward movement there. On the contrary, the movement has intensified (albeit only in recent days, which are not covered by the latest COT report). However, in any case, a strong decrease in the net position usually reflects a fall in the currency. In our case, there was no drop even in the days covered by the latest COT report. In general, the data on the COT reports are now completely different from what is happening in the market. We always say that absolutely any data that is used in trading must be confirmed by technical signals. Thus, at this time, the data from the COT reports are not confirmed. We have already discussed why this can be so. First, the COT reports for the pound clearly do not take into account the increase in supply in the US dollar market. Secondly, the COT reports are released with a delay of several days, so the pound's rise by 300 points can be reflected by the specific actions of the major players in the next report. However, in any case, based on the COT reports, no important conclusions can now be drawn for any future.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.