Forex Analysis & Reviews: 17.11.2021 - Forecast of interest rate...

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17.11.2021 11:43 AM

Forecast of interest rate hikes in Canada and the UK

Governor Tiff Macklem said that the Bank of Canada is not going to raise its base interest rate until the weakness in the country's economy is eliminated.

Macklem also noted that the central bank continues to view the recent dynamics as temporary despite the fact that the risk of inflation has increased due to increased demand, disruptions in the supply chain, and increased energy prices.

He added that the basis of the central bank's policy is a flexible inflation target focused on 2% in the 1-3% control range. This means that Canadians can be confident that the bank will keep inflation under control while maintaining a full recovery.

Inflation has risen sharply in recent months. The overall inflation rate in Canada rose to 4.4% in September, which exceeds the bank's target range for the sixth month in a row.

Last month, the Bank of Canada announced that its first rate hike could happen as early as April 2022, and there will be only five in 2022.

On the other hand, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said he was very concerned about the prospects for inflation, and that his decision to leave interest rates unchanged earlier this month, which shocked financial markets, was very reasonable.

He said the lack of official data on what happened to the roughly 1 million workers who are still on vacation made him wait a bit and not raise rates.

On November 4, the Bank of England said that most of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee would like to wait for additional data on the labor market, saying that raising rates was the right step.

This decision confused many investors who thought Bailey's previous comments meant that the Bank of England would announce a rate hike this month.

Michael Saunders, one of two MPC members who voted to raise rates earlier this month, said the likelihood of overall inflation rising is high enough to justify higher borrowing costs.