Forex Analysis & Reviews: 04.01.2022 - Forecast for EUR/USD on...

04.01.2022 02:45 PM

Forecast for EUR/USD on January 4. The first interesting event of the week: the Fed minutes

The EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency on Monday from the very opening of trading and began a new process of falling towards the level of 1.1250. Thus, the pair spent at most 6 hours above the side corridor. Formally, we have a closure over the side corridor, which means a change in the mood of traders from "neutral" to "bullish". However, in reality, the pair is in the same place as during the last month - inside the side corridor. Therefore, I do not advise concluding the completion of the sidewall yet. Traders need to gain a more convincing foothold over the corridor so that they can conclude about the beginning of a new trend. On Monday, the entire information background was expressed by business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of the United States and the European Union. The first report turned out to be only 0.1% weaker than expectations, and the second was completely in line with them. These minimal deviations could not affect the mood of traders in any way, so I am inclined to believe that the information background was simply absent yesterday.

Today, the situation will not be much better, as we are waiting for all the same business activity indices. More precisely, one index is ISM. The first really interesting event of the week will only be the FOMC protocol, which will be released tomorrow evening. Let me remind you that in recent months there has been a huge amount of talk on the market about "when the Fed will start raising the rate and when it will fully complete the stimulus program." The minutes are rarely filled with information that is still unknown to traders after the meeting itself. Nevertheless, in our case, some information may still arrive. In particular, traders are interested in the mood of the Fed board members. Currently, the most popular version is the completion of the QE program in March and the first increase in the key rate over the next one or two months. The protocol is unlikely to answer the question of whether this will be the case. The protocol will only help to find out whether the "hawkish" mood among FOMC members has intensified. Therefore, the event itself is interesting, but it is unlikely to have a strong impact on the mood of traders.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair performed a closure over a semi-descending-semi-lateral corridor, but just a few hours later returned. Thus, the situation is very similar to the one that has developed on the hourly chart. Now the process of the fall of the euro quotes can be resumed in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1148). Emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator today.

News calendar for the US and the European Union:

US - ISM manufacturing index (15:00 UTC).

On January 4, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States are almost empty again. Traders can pay attention today only to the ISM index for the manufacturing sector in the United States. In itself, it is quite important, but the reaction of traders will depend on what its value will be. In general, I do not expect that the influence of the information background will be strong on the mood of traders today.

EUR/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:

After the pair closed below the corrective level of 1.1357, it was possible to sell with a target of 1.1250. Now, this deal can be kept open. I recommend buying a pair when rebounding from the level of 1.1250 or the lower border of the side corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1357.

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# EURUSD # COT (Commitments of Traders) Technical analysis

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