Forex Analysis & Reviews: 11.01.2022 - Analysis of GBP/USD on...

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11.01.2022 07:45 PM

Analysis of GBP/USD on January 11. Boris Johnson is walking on the edge of a precipice.

For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look quite convincing and is becoming more and more structured. In the last few weeks, the instrument has continued to build an upward wave, which is currently interpreted as wave D of the downward trend segment. If the current wave marking is correct, then the decline in quotes will resume after the completion of this wave, which may happen in the near future. Thus, the entire downward section of the trend may take on an even more extended form. However, if wave D takes a five-wave form, then it will need to be recognized as an impulse, and in this case, it will no longer be able to be a corrective wave D, and the entire wave pattern will require additions. At the moment, there are still three waves visible inside it, which can be the a-b-c series. In this case, an unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.3641 mark, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci, may lead to its completion. I also note that the chances of building a new downward wave are also high for the euro/dollar instrument. That is, both instruments can start building a new downward wave.

Boris Johnson's popularity is falling within the Conservative Party.

The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument during January 11 managed to increase by 45 basis points, then decrease by 50 and grow by 50. The amplitude of the instrument was only 25 points. From my point of view, such movements on a day when there was no news background in the UK and the USA (except for Powell's speech, which began just an hour ago) indicate that the market is trying to maintain the construction of an upward wave, but it is doing it with the last of its strength. Market participants are no longer sure that the Briton can continue to grow stronger in a pair with the dollar. However, so far there is no sign of the completion of the rising wave and it may take a more complex and extended form. At the same time, the market's attention has shifted from economics to politics. In recent weeks, the UK has been showing huge numbers of coronavirus diseases. Omicron has long been the dominant strain in the country. Against the background of a new wave of the epidemic and Boris Johnson's refusal to introduce a "lockdown", he is subjected to harsh criticism among the population, and his political approval rating continues to decline. However, the worst thing for him is not this, but the fact that his rating is falling within his own Conservative Party. The results of a survey conducted by YouGov show that almost half of the Conservatives surveyed believe that the Prime Minister is not coping well with his duties. In politics, where the popularity of the leader plays a huge role, this factor can play a cruel joke with the prime minister. If Boris Johnson's ratings continue to fall, then the ratings of the Conservatives, who inflicted a crushing defeat on their main opponents, the Labor Party, in the last parliamentary elections, will also fall. However, already at the next election, these parties may switch places, which, of course, the conservatives want to avoid. It may even come to change the leader of the Conservative Party.

General conclusions.The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument assumes the completion of the construction of the proposed wave D in the near future. Since this wave has not yet taken a five-wave form, I expect that a new descending wave E will be built. And it should begin in the very near future. Therefore, I advise you to sell the instrument with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.3271 and 1.3043, which corresponds to 61.8% and 76.4% by Fibonacci, if a successful attempt to break through the 1.3456 mark is made. Or an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3641 mark, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.