Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair began to adjust on Friday after a week of growth. It should be noted right away that the pair's decline on the last trading day of this week was absolutely logical. Firstly, the price was growing for five consecutive days and a technical correction was needed. Secondly, the macroeconomic background on Friday implied a rise in the dollar, as the US Nonfarm report turned out to be stronger than forecasts. However, along with this report, there was also data on unemployment, as well as on wages. And it turned out that the unemployment rate rose to 4% in January. This is bad for the dollar, but the NonFarm Payrolls report is more important. Thus, on the 30-minute TF, the price settled below the ascending trend line, which changed the current trend to a downward one. Now the drop in quotes may continue with the 1.3488 target. Next week, the macroeconomic background will be practically absent. At least for the first three days of the week. Thus, the pair can move on a pure technique, but at the same time, volatility may decrease, and a flat may be observed on some days.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
There were few trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday. However, those that were, eventually brought excellent profits to novice traders. First of all, it should be noted that there were few trading signals due to the fact that there were few levels, and the pair was in trend movement all day. Thus, literally the first formed sell signal became almost the only one. The price overcame the area of 1.3598-1.3603, after which it fell to the area of 1.3521-1.3531, which it overcame. At the very end of this decline, a Nonfarm report was published in the US, which "finished off" the pound. However, even if novice traders closed their short positions before the release of this report, they still made a profit on the transaction of at least 43 points. If not, then it was possible to earn about the same amount, since the pair's decline did not last long, and the price settled above 1.3531 in a few hours, where it was necessary to manually close the deal. It was no longer necessary to buy the pair on this signal, since the trading day and the trading week were coming to an end. Thus, a single transaction gave a tangible profit.
How to trade on Monday:
The upward trend is reversed on the 30-minute TF. Therefore, from a technical point of view, now the pair can continue to fall. At least for a while. However, in general, it is more likely to form a new long-term upward trend. On the 5-minute TF, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.3431-1.3439, 1.3488, 1.3521-1.3531, 1.3598-1.3603. There won't be a single important macroeconomic report or a single important fundamental event in the UK and America tomorrow. Therefore, traders will have nothing to react to during the day. Therefore, you will have to trade exclusively by levels. At the slightest sign of a flat (which is likely), you should leave the market. The pair will start a new trading day between the levels of 1.3521 and 1.3531.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
