empty
04.03.2022 04:19 PM
GBP/USD on March 4, 2022

This image is no longer relevant

Hi, dear traders!

According to the H1 chart, GBP/USD continued to go down on Thursday without any upward corrections. The pair closed below the retracement levels of 100.0% (1.3357) and 127.2% (1.3279). At this point, it could decline toward the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (1.3181). Today, US non-farm payrolls were released. The data greatly exceeded market expectations – the US economy added 678,000 new jobs in February. Economists expected that only 350,000-400,000 new jobs would be created. The previous month's data was revised upwards to 481,000. Unemployment fell to 3.8% from 4%. Average hourly earnings did not match expectations, but they are not as important as non-farm payrolls. These strong data releases can send the pair into a slump and boost the US dollar. However, the initial reaction of traders to this batch of data was muted, as GBP was already sliding down throughout the day, while USD was going up.

The pair's further downward movement may be not as significant as it could have been before. The US dollar also found strong support in the ongoing international situation. The war between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of stopping. The second round of negotiations between the two sides has failed to produce any results, just like the first one. The third round of negotiations is set to begin next week, with both Russia and Ukraine have drastically different positions. Some progress has been made – there are hopes that it would help stop the war and sanctions against Russia, as well as reverse the nosediving world markets upwards. However, de-escalation seems very unlikely, as new sanctions are being imposed on Moscow. Furthermore, the Kremlin could declare martial law in Russia in the near future.

This image is no longer relevant

According to the H4 chart, the pair dived below the retracement level of 61.8% (1.3274). It could close below it tonight, which would open the way towards the next Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3044). There are no emerging divergences today. However, at this point, they are not as important to traders as geopolitical factors. If GBP/USD bounces off 1.3274, it would rise up slightly.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

This image is no longer relevant

The mood of "Non-commercial" traders changed sharply once again during the week covered by the report. 8,309 Long positions were closed, and 346 Short positions were opened, indicating an increasingly bearish sentiment among traders. However, the mood of traders could be called "neutral" – the total number of open Long and Short contracts is roughly the same among most categories of traders. At this point, the sentiment of traders can fluctuate rapidly due to geopolitical factors.

US and UK economic calendar:

UK – construction PMI (09-30 UTC).

US – unemployment data (13-30 UTC).

US – non-farm payrolls (13-30 UTC).

US - average hourly earnings (13-30 UTC).

Traders have ignored UK's construction PMI data. Strong data releases in the US are giving support to USD. However, the US dollar's upsurge could continue even without it.

Outlook for GBP/USD:

Traders are recommended to open short positions targeting 1.3181 – the pair has closed below 1.3279. Most factors favor the dollar – opening long positions is not recommended today.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forex forecast 13/05/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, SP500, Oil, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 12:00 2025-05-13 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 13, 2025

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline after rebounding from the resistance zone of 1.1265–1.1282 on Friday. The pair consolidated below the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1181 and fell

Samir Klishi 11:02 2025-05-13 UTC+2

GBP/USD – May 13th: Unemployment in Britain Is Rising Again

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the 1.3139 level on Monday, rebounded from it, and rose to the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3205. A rebound from this

Samir Klishi 11:01 2025-05-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for May 13, 2025

The main event yesterday, which somewhat confused the markets, was the agreement between the U.S. and China to return to the mutual tariffs that were in place before April

Laurie Bailey 04:49 2025-05-13 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for May 13, 2025

By the end of yesterday, the British pound declined by 129 pips, following a 1.43% increase in the dollar index. The support range of 1.3184–1.3208 was breached, and the movement

Laurie Bailey 04:49 2025-05-13 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for May 13, 2025

The USD/JPY pair made a sharp and powerful move yesterday, covering more than three figures and precisely reaching the target level of 148.66, the low from last December. The trick

Laurie Bailey 04:49 2025-05-13 UTC+2

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for May 12-15, 2025: sell below $106,250 (200 EMA - 21 SMA)

Early in the American session, Bitcoin is trading around $104,250, above the 21st SMA and within the bullish trend channel formed on May 4th. We observe exhaustion. During the last

Dimitrios Zappas 17:34 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 12-15, 2025: buy above 1.1080 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1123, bouncing after reaching the bottom of the downtrend channel. We observe overbought conditions. At the opening of this

Dimitrios Zappas 17:33 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Forex forecast 12/05/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 13:37 2025-05-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD. May 12. The Ukraine conflict may be resolved

Good day, dear traders! On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rose to the resistance zone of 1.1265–1.1282, rebounded, and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. The downward movement may continue

Samir Klishi 10:04 2025-05-12 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.