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05.04.2022 12:01 PM
Review of USD, NZD and AUD: Commodity currencies rally amid improving risk appetite
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Commodity currencies started this week as neutral, but with a slight bullish edge. US indices have shown some gains on Monday, Asian indices traded in the green zone on Tuesday, while yields, on the other hand, posted low dynamics. Oil prices also increased once again, primarily due to the current geopolitical situation and manoeuvres. Most likely, these movements will continue today, along with some rollback in demand for dollar.

NZD/USD

Business confidence and business activity expectations stabilized in March, after falling in February, which is good news for the kiwi. However, inflation expectations also rose, which is definitely bad news. The RBNZ has already raised the rate three times, but so far the price growth has not been stopped and, according to forecasts, inflation will reach 7.1% y/y in the 1st quarter.

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Consumer confidence also dipped to a record low of 77.9 points, from a pre-COVID average of 120 points. This means that businesses and households do not expect inflationary pressures to ease.

As such, the ANZ Bank believes that the 0.25% rate hike is not enough, so it forecasts the RBNZ to impose another 0.5% increase in April and May. This should not have a noticeable effect on the economy because the labor market is very strong, with the unemployment rate currently being at 3.2% and may decrease to 2.9% by mid-2022.

Be that as it may, the momentum for kiwi has clearly slowed down. As follows from the CFTC report, the weekly change in NZD is -236 million. A bearish overweight of -60 million has formed, which, albeit minimal, shows that the dynamics is negative. The settlement price also went below the long-term average, indicating the likelihood of a bearish reversal.

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But if positive expectations come to the markets, the pair could rise to 0.7030/50. And even though the further dynamics will be determined by the position of the RBNZ, which, obviously, has every chance to change, support will be 0.6880/6900.

AUD/USD

The RBA meeting, which ended this morning, did not bring any surprises. The rate remained at 0.1%, primarily because the central bank did not see the current inflation risks more significant than in February. They said wages are growing at a low pace, so there is enough time to reassess the prospects. As for inflation, the University of Melbourne said it rose by 0.6% m/m and increased by 1.1% on a quarterly basis. Taking into account that the February forecast assumed a growth of 0.8%, it can be concluded that inflation is currently higher than the RBA calculated. Although there was no reaction to this risk in today's meeting, expectations for the next meeting will shift in favor of a rate increase, which may cause additional demand for the AUD.

For now, the change in AUD positioning for the reporting week is minimal. The net short position decreased by 99 million to -3.725 billion, showing a bearish edge. However, the settlement price is still up, which means that the bullish momentum has not ended.

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AUD/USD came close to 0.7620. Perhaps, it would increase further soon towards 0.7898. However, after that, the pair will return to 0.7560.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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