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05.04.2022 01:58 PM
Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on April 5
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Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

A signal to buy emerged after GBP/USD hit 1.3132. However, there was no sharp increase because the MACD line being far from zero limited the upside potential of the pair. Some time later, another test of this range took place, but this time the signal that emerged was to sell. Since the MACD was already in the overbought area, the pair fell by 25 pips, to the support level of 1.3107. The test of this range in the afternoon led to another decline, but only a little.

This image is no longer relevant

The statements of Bank of England members did not lead to a significant surge in volatility, keeping GBP/USD within the sideways channel. US data on manufacturing orders also did not result in anything, most likely because the worsening geopolitical situation is driving the markets.

Today, investors should pay attention to the upcoming PMI reports from the UK. The US will also release similar data, but more important are the foreign trade balance and business activity in the services sector. Statements from FOMC members Lael Brainard and John Williams could increase demand for dollar, resulting in another decline in GBP/USD. The Fed's aggressive interest rate policy will also affect the markets.

For long positions:

Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.3141 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.3174 (thicker green line on the chart). A rally will occur if upcoming PMI data exceed expectations.

When buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3122, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3141 and 1.3174.

For short positions:

Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.3122 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.3096. Pressure is likely to continue, especially since the attempt to break through 1.3141 failed. The outlook for the UK economy is also getting gloomier every day. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.3141, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3122 and 1.3096.

This image is no longer relevant

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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