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20.04.2022 09:43 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on April 20
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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

A signal to buy emerged after EUR/USD hit 1.0790. However, there was no sharp increase because the MACD line being far from zero limited the upside potential of the pair. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.

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Given that there were no statistics on the euro area yesterday, traders focused on the published data on the US economy, as well as on the speech of Fed member Charles Evans. Although those had a positive impact on dollar, it did not lead to serious pressure in EUR/USD.

Today appears to be a busy day because in the morning, Germany will release reports on producer prices, business environment, current situation and economic expectations. Many expect that these will indicate some slow down, primarily because of the issues that arose this April. February data on EU's industrial production and foreign trade balance are unlikely to affect the market, while the speech of ECB Board Member Joachim Nagel, on the other hand, could provoke a surge in volatility and increase in EUR/USD.

In the afternoon, there will be a report on the US secondary housing market, but that is unlikely to have any effect. Instead, traders should focus on the statements of FOMC members Mary Daly and Charles Evans, which could hint at a half-point rate hike next month.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0824 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0867 (thicker green line on the chart). However, a further increase will occur only if there are strong statistics in Germany and the Eurozone. In any case, when buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.0795, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0824 and 1.0867.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0795 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0757. Pressure is likely to return because risk appetite is seriously deteriorating. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0824, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0795 and 1.0757.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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