According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair secured above the level of 1.2600, and then rebounded from it from above, which slightly increases the probability of further growth in the direction of the corrective level of 323.6% (1.2718). The upward trend corridor still plays an important role in determining the mood of traders and now characterizes it "as bullish". Nevertheless, in recent days, the pair has approached the lower line of this corridor, and this week bear trader may try to close under the corridor, which will work in favor of the US currency and a change in the mood of the players to bearish. In this case, the fall of the British dollar's quotes may begin in the direction of the Fibo level of 423.6% (1.2432). The pound has been moving in the same way as the European Union in the last two weeks. And it has as much news and support as a European. The euro has even more of them since the ECB started talking about raising the interest rate, and the Bank of England has already raised the rate four times, which did not help the pound in any way.

I even assume that the factor of changing the rhetoric of the ECB and Christine Lagarde may have only a weak impact on bull traders. The graphical factor may have a greater impact on the growth of the euro and the pound. If you look at the daily chart, the growth of both currencies has been asking for a very long time. This week, there will be several important events that may even bring bears back to the market. First of all, we are talking about the report on the US labor market Nonfarm Payrolls. It will be released only on Friday, but on the eve of it, traders may already be slightly reducing their purchasing power. If the report is strong, it may give a new impetus to the US currency, which has not yet moved too far away from the level of 1.2146, where the fall of the British dollar ended last time. Thus, the downward trend may resume if there is closure under the corridor this week, and the information background will support the US currency. This conclusion is also true for the euro/dollar pair.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair performed a reversal in favor of the British after the formation of a "bullish" divergence at the CCI indicator. However, now the MACD indicator has formed a new "bearish" divergence, which allows us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2250). The rebound of quotes from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.2674) will also work in favor of the beginning of the pair's fall, and closing above the level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of further growth towards the next level of 1.2860.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has not changed too much over the past week. The number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased by 677 units, and the number of short contracts increased by 454. Thus, the general mood of the major players remained the same - "bearish", and the number of long contracts exceeded the number of short contracts four times as before. The big players continue to get rid of the pound and their mood has hardly changed over the past week. Thus, I expect that the pound may resume its decline over the next few weeks. Now the corridors on the hourly and 4-hour charts will be of great importance since such a strong discrepancy between the numbers of Long and Short contracts can also indicate a trend reversal. But there is no point in denying that speculators sell more than they buy.

News calendar for the USA and the UK:

On Monday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and America are empty. Today, the information background does not affect the mood of traders.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:

I recommend selling the pound if there is a rebound from the level of 1.2674 on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2600 and 1.2432. Or if there is closure under the corridor on the hourly chart with the same goals. I do not recommend buying a pound yet, as a fall may begin in the next couple of days due to divergence on the 4-hour chart.