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11.07.2022 02:07 PM
US premarket on July 11: Investors take profits before US inflation data
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US stock index futures fell sharply on Monday as Wall Street braces for big companies' earnings reports. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 104 points, or 0.33%. S&P 500 futures fell by 0.44% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined by 0.6%.

The indices came under pressure due to the worsening situation with the coronavirus pandemic in China: the first case of the more contagious BA.5 sub-strain was found in Shanghai. Experts say that the number of new coronavirus cases is currently growing worldwide, although the risk of lockdowns in the US and EU remains extremely low.

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Last week, all major indices gained more than expected. The US jobs report had a short-term impact on the market. It is obvious that the country has not faced the economic downturn yet, which investors were deeply concerned about. This aspect added to general positive sentiment. However, 2-year Treasury yields jumped again compared to 10-year Treasury yields. The inversion, considered by many analysts an indicator of recession, is again: 2-year Treasury yields are at 3.08%, about 2 basis points higher than 10-year Treasury yields.

Moreover, weak reports may carry another risk to investors. Despite markets ended positive last week, investors await strong volatility in July amid inflation uncertainty, Fed policy, recession fears and the corporate reporting season.

Experts say it will take much longer to properly analyze earnings reports as analysts could give conservative outlooks for a strong second quarter. PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines will report earnings on Tuesday and Wednesday. JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Citigroup will report at the end of week.

Investors are awaiting this week's key inflation data release and are probably locking in profits. The consumer price index for June will be published on Wednesday. Overall inflation is likely to exceed 8.6% compared to May.

Premarket

Twitter stocks fell by more than 5% in the premarket after Elon Musk walked away from a $44 billion deal to buy the company. The billionaire did not acknowledge the number of bots and fake accounts on the platform and accused Twitter of providing unreliable reports, distorting real activity on the platform. However, the company said it had given Musk all the necessary information to assess the claims. Moreover, it is not clear who will pay a $1 billion breakup fee due to the broken deal.

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Technical picture of S&P500

Yesterday, buyers lost their optimism due to the market pressure. Only if the S&P500 breaks through the level of $3,905, it will push the trading instrument to the area of $3.942, where large sellers will return to the market. There will be at least some sellers who want to fix profits on long positions. A level of $3,975 will be considered a more distant target. In case of market players' pessimism and expectations of high inflation and the need to raise interest rates as well as a sharp rejection of risks, the trading instrument will update the nearest support at $3,872 and will rise to $3,835. There is a more stable level of $3,788 below. If bulls are not active there, a breakthrough of this range will lead to a new sell-off at $3,744 and $3,704.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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