Falling inflation threatens the dollar to break the psychological level in the near future.
The US Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% m/m in December 2022, the first decline since May 2020. This surpassed market forecasts as they expected the index to remain unchanged. The annual inflation rate declined from 7.1% to 6.5%, according to preliminary estimates.
The market move was the expected one. The 103.00 mark on the dollar index, to which the US currency has been practically riveted lately, broke down. The initial response was more emotional, the indicator fell below 102.50, but quickly rebounded.
In the coming hours and days, market players will continue to analyze inflation in the context of US monetary policy, so the dollar's volatility may remain high.
Markets need confirmation of the interest rate cut in the second half of the year. They get it and it would weigh on the dollar. The Federal Reserve acknowledges the decline in inflation, but will not consider it a reason to consider inflationary pressures to be truly declining on a sustainable basis. Officials are likely to remain vigilant.
Falling inflation threatens the dollar to break the psychological level in the near future.
The US Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% m/m in December 2022, the first decline since May 2020. This surpassed market forecasts as they expected the index to remain unchanged. The annual inflation rate declined from 7.1% to 6.5%, according to preliminary estimates.
The market move was the expected one. The 103.00 mark on the dollar index, to which the US currency has been practically riveted lately, broke down. The initial response was more emotional, the indicator fell below 102.50, but quickly rebounded.
In the coming hours and days, market players will continue to analyze inflation in the context of US monetary policy, so the dollar's volatility may remain high.
Markets need confirmation of the interest rate cut in the second half of the year. They get it and it would weigh on the dollar. The Federal Reserve acknowledges the decline in inflation, but will not consider it a reason to consider inflationary pressures to be truly declining on a sustainable basis. Officials are likely to remain vigilant.
Regarding the internal factors of the euro, in Europe preliminary estimates pointed to an easing of price pressures. Annual inflation in the bloc hit a four-month low. However, with the exception of energy, inflation remains at record highs. Final data will be released next week.
At the same time, the European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey showed that expectations over the next 12 months eased for the first time since May 2022. Nevertheless, the central bank is unlikely to change the course of monetary policy. Another increase in borrowing costs is expected next month.
Rising housing prices. Which components are important?
When analyzing the current price situation in America., the markets can't ignore such an area as the cost of housing. It is curious to what extent home price growth was responsible for keeping inflation from changing further in December after adding 0.8% to the Consumer Price Index at the end of the year.
The indicator is important, but this form of inflation is only a temporary side effect for the Fed. Central bank officials are likely to take this into account when setting policy in the coming months.
"Given the impending easing of prices in general and the increasing impact of past interest rate hikes, the Fed may pause after the final 50 bps hike at the next meeting," Capital Markets economists suggest.
Thursday's price developments are all the more important after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said twice in December that Fed officials would likely overlook inflation in housing costs to focus instead on the pace of price growth in other parts of the services sector over the coming months.
"As rents expire and have to be renewed, they're going to be renewed into a market where rates are higher than they were when the original leases were signed," he said in December's monetary policy press conference.
"But we see that the new leases that are—that the rate for new leases is coming down. So, once we work our way through that backlog, that inflation will come down next year," he added.
What's more, the services sector inflation rates that actually matter were some of lowest or weakest of all those reported in Thursday's data with transportation and medical services inflation coming in at 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
In other words, service sector inflation was at levels that were not inconsistent with the Fed's overall inflation target for December.
