Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

Testing the price at 157.87 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the scenario for selling the dollar. However, as you can see on the chart, a major downward movement did not occur, as there were simply no buyers for the dollar at such lows. The further direction of the pair will now depend on American statistics, which we almost have none of, and the statements of Federal Reserve representatives. The Empire Manufacturing Index will likely be ignored by traders, but the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will surely lead to a surge in market volatility. Hints at an imminent rate cut due to inflation progress will likely weaken the dollar's position even further, leading to a new wave of decline in USD/JPY.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 158.29 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 158.97 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.97, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). One can expect the pair to rise today, but only after a hawkish tone from the Fed Chairman. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.70 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market turn upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 158.29 and 158.97 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the level at 157.70 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level at 157.10, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful attempt to rise above the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.29 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 157.70 and 157.10 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should make market entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.