Analysis of trades and tips on EUR/USD
The price test of 1.1122 occurred when the MACD indicator started to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by about ten pips, but it did not lead to a significant drop. The lack of data from the Eurozone played a role in this. However, we await data on new home sales and the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak. Any hints of a more aggressive rate cut than the market expects could lead to a decline in the dollar and a new wave of euro growth. A more conservative stance might favor dollar buyers, which could result in a notable drop in EUR/USD by the end of the week. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to base my actions on implementing Scenario No. 1, despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong and decisive movement.
Buy signals
Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1135, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.1198. At 1.1198, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can count on a strong upward movement of the euro today after Powell's soft comments on future interest rates. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.1105 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1135 and 1.1198.
Sell signals
Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1105, plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.1052, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair will return in the event of a failed attempt to rise above the daily high and a tough stance by the Fed. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.1135 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1105 and 1.1052.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
