Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1057 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I didn't sell the euro as the potential for further decline was limited. The second test of this price, with the MACD in the oversold area and recovering from it, allowed me to enter the market by buying the euro, following Scenario #2. However, as you can see on the chart, I was only able to exit the trade without losses, as the expected growth didn't materialize. In the second half of the day, attention will shift to the numbers on changes in wholesale inventories and consumer credit in the U.S., which may only have a slight impact on the pair's direction. Most likely, the downtrend will continue, so it's better to look for buy opportunities during an upward move. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price around 1.1050 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 1.1084 level. At 1.1084, I will take profit and then sell the euro short, aiming for a 30-35 point move from the entry point. A strong upward movement in the euro today can only be expected after very weak U.S. statistics. Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1028 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the 1.1050 and 1.1084 levels can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1028 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0985, where I will exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20-25 point move from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if there are no buyers around 1.1050 and if U.S. statistics are strong. Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1050 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1028 and 1.0985 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line: The entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: The estimated price where you can place Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: The entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: The estimated price where you can place Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, pay attention to the overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.