Analysis of trades and trading tips for the Japanese yen

The test of the 153.84 level occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I refrained from selling. Shortly afterward, a second test of 153.84 coincided with the MACD indicator entering the oversold zone. This triggered Scenario #2: a buy opportunity aligned with the upward trend. However, as shown on the chart, significant growth did not materialize.

In the second half of the day, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims are unlikely to have a major impact. The FOMC decision on the key interest rate, along with the accompanying statement and Jerome Powell's press conference, will be the main catalysts for volatility. A dovish tone may weaken the U.S. dollar, while a hawkish stance is likely to support further dollar strength. For intraday strategy, I will focus on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point near 154.16 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 154.70 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.70, I will exit purchases and open short positions, aiming for a 30-35 point correction. Growth in the pair today is likely only if the Fed adopts a hawkish stance.Important: Ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise before buying.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the 153.84 level is tested twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This setup limits the pair's downside potential and may trigger a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward resistance levels of 154.16 and 154.70.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 153.84 level is breached (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 153.33, where I will exit sales and open buy positions, targeting a 20-25 point upward correction. Pressure on the pair is likely if the Fed signals a dovish stance.Important: Ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline before selling.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the 154.16 level is tested twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This setup limits the pair's upward potential and may trigger a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward support levels of 153.84 and 153.33.

Key Chart Elements

• Thin green line: Suggested buy entry point.
• Thick green line: Projected Take Profit level or a point for securing gains, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Suggested sell entry point.
• Thick red line: Projected Take Profit level or a point for securing gains, as further declines below this level are unlikely.

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders:Beginner traders should exercise caution when entering the market. It is often safer to avoid trading during major fundamental reports to prevent sharp price swings. If trading during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you risk losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice proper money management or trade with large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the example provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are often counterproductive for intraday traders.