empty
30.01.2025 01:00 PM
Forecast for GBP/USD on January 30, 2025

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD attempted to decline towards the 1.2363–1.2370 support zone on Wednesday but failed to sustain the move. Another attempt to test this level may follow today. Bulls still maintain some control, but they were unable to secure a breakout above the 1.2488–1.2508 resistance zone either. The upcoming Bank of England meeting next week remains a key factor for the pound, and until then, bulls must hold their ground within the upward channel.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure is clear. The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the latest upward wave has yet to reach the last peak. This suggests that the bearish trend remains intact. To reverse this trend, GBP/USD must rise to at least 1.2569 and secure a confident close above it. While this scenario is possible, discrepancies between the euro and the pound's wave structures indicate that one of them may be incorrectly formed.

Wednesday's market focus was not on the FOMC rate decision, as it was widely anticipated that the Fed would keep rates unchanged. Instead, all attention was on Jerome Powell's remarks. Powell reiterated that the U.S. economy remains strong and the labor market is balanced. The Fed is firmly committed to achieving its 2% inflation target, but rising CPI in recent months has prompted a more cautious stance. He emphasized that if the labor market shows signs of cooling, the Fed would be prepared to cut rates—but at present, such action is not necessary.

Additionally, Powell stated that Donald Trump will not influence the Fed's monetary policy, as he lacks the authority to do so. He also expressed concerns about potential U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures, though it is too early to assess their impact. Given these statements, bears may have a stronger case for renewed selling pressure in the coming days.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD remains within a downward trend channel. A rejection from the upper boundary of this channel could lead to a bearish reversal, targeting 1.2299 (100.0% Fibonacci level). However, if the pair breaks above this downward channel, it could force bears out of the market completely.

A bullish divergence has emerged on the CCI indicator, but bulls are yet to capitalize on this signal.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest COT report shows that speculative sentiment has become increasingly bearish. Non-commercial traders reduced their long positions by 4,861, while short positions increased by 3,834. Over the past several months, bulls have completely lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short positions is now 75,000 vs. 84,000 in favor of bears.

From my perspective, GBP/USD still has downward potential, with the COT report confirming the strengthening of bearish positions almost every week. Over the past three months, long positions have declined from 161,000 to 75,000, while short positions have risen from 67,000 to 84,000.

I believe institutional players will continue unwinding long positions or increasing shorts, as most bullish factors for GBP have already been priced in. While technical analysis currently suggests a possible rebound, corrections remain likely.

Key Economic Data for the U.S. and UK

  • U.S. Q4 GDP Data (13:30 UTC)
  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)

Thursday's economic calendar is relatively light, meaning the impact of fundamental events on market sentiment may be moderate.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

  • Selling opportunities remain valid if the pair breaks below the upward trend channel on the hourly chart.
  • Short positions from the 1.2488–1.2508 resistance zone targeting 1.2363–1.2370 remain relevant.
  • Long positions should be considered if GBP/USD rebounds from the 1.2363–1.2370 support zone, with an upside target at 1.2488–1.2508.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3000–1.3432 on the hourly chart and 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. February 21st. A Crucial Day for the Euro

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement following a rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0411. By the end of the day, the pair climbed towards

Samir Klishi 12:05 2025-02-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD. February 21st. The British Pound Receives Its First Positive Signal

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair secured itself above the resistance zone of 1.2611–1.2642 on Thursday, allowing for expectations of further growth towards the next resistance area at 1.2709–1.2734

Samir Klishi 12:00 2025-02-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD and GBP/USD – February 21 Technical Analysis

During the first half of the week, bearish traders executed a corrective decline down to the daily short-term trend level at 1.0404. However, by the last working day, the currency

Evangelos Poulakis 07:22 2025-02-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for February 21, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rose by 80 pips, decisively surpassing the resistance level at 1.0458. This move has established the range of 1.0534 to 1.0575 as a primary target

Laurie Bailey 03:48 2025-02-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for February 21, 2025

By the end of yesterday's trading session, GBP/USD had gained 84 pips, successfully breaking through the resistance level at 1.2616 and paving the way toward 1.2708. If the price consolidates

Laurie Bailey 03:48 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin Forecast for February 21, 2025

Bitcoin has chosen not to decline further toward key support levels. Instead, in response to the broader risk sentiment, it reversed from the lower boundary of the ascending price channel

Laurie Bailey 03:48 2025-02-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD – February 20th: FOMC Concerns Over Trump's Policies

On Wednesday, EUR/USD continued its downward movement, reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0411. A rebound from this level would favor the euro's recovery towards 1.0458 and 1.0533. Conversely

Samir Klishi 10:45 2025-02-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD – February 20th: UK Inflation Fails to Support Bulls

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rebounded for the third consecutive time from the 1.2611–1.2620 resistance zone, experiencing a slight decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2538. Today

Samir Klishi 10:42 2025-02-20 UTC+2

Forex forecast 20/02/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, Oil and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:32 2025-02-20 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Hang Seng Index, Thursday February 20, 2025.

On the 4-hour chart of the Hang Seng index, there are 3 interesting things, first the appearance of Divergence between the price movement of the index and the Stochastic Oscillator

Arief Makmur 06:12 2025-02-20 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.