empty
31.01.2025 01:53 PM
Forecast for GBP/USD on January 31, 2025

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD continued its sideways movement on Thursday, trading between two key zones. There were no valid trading signals on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday, as the price did not approach any of the important levels that have defined the range over the past three days.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure is relatively clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave surpassed the prior peak. This suggests that a bullish trend may be forming. However, the waves have been small and inconsistent, making it difficult to confidently classify the current trend as a sustained bullish move that could continue for at least a few weeks.

Thursday's fundamental background was relatively weak. According to the latest U.S. Q4 GDP report, the economy grew by 2.3% q/q, missing the expected 2.6%. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims came in at 207K, better than the 220K forecast.

These reports provided some support for the bulls, but the British pound did not see a significant upward move, mainly because the euro had stronger reasons to decline—and GBP/USD often moves in tandem with EUR/USD. Ideally, the euro should have fallen, and the pound should have risen, but traders struggled to determine a clear direction.

Today, the sideways movement could persist, as no significant UK economic releases are scheduled, and the British pound has lacked strong domestic catalysts throughout the week. However, the pound could come under pressure in the coming days, as the Bank of England is preparing to cut interest rates next week. This could align the bearish sentiment for both the euro and the pound, potentially leading to a broader market sell-off.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD continues to rise within a downward trend channel. A rejection from the upper boundary of this channel could trigger a bearish reversal, pushing the pair toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2299. Conversely, a breakout above the trend channel could drive bears out of the market, potentially signaling a shift toward bullish control.

A bullish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, yet buyers remain hesitant to initiate a strong rally.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

The latest COT report indicates that the non-commercial traders' sentiment has turned increasingly bearish. Long positions decreased by 4,861 and short positions increased by 3,834. The balance has shifted in favor of the bears, with 84K short positions versus 75K long positions.

Over the past three months, long positions fell from 161K to 75K and short positions rose from 67K to 84K.

These trends suggest that institutional traders are consistently reducing their long exposure or increasing short positions, as most bullish factors for the pound have already been priced in.

While technical analysis currently signals upward potential, corrections remain necessary, and the broader trend could favor further GBP weakness over time.

Key Economic Events: U.S. Data to Watch

  • 13:30 UTC – U.S. Core PCE Price Index
  • 13:30 UTC – U.S. Personal Income & Spending

While today's economic calendar includes only two notable releases, their impact on market sentiment could be limited.

Trading Recommendations for GBP/USD

Short positions are valid if the price breaks below the ascending trend channel on the hourly chart. Selling opportunities were also available upon a rejection from the 1.2488–1.2508 zone, with targets at 1.2363–1.2370—these trades can remain open. Buying opportunities can be considered if the price rebounded from the 1.2363–1.2370 zone, targeting 1.2488–1.2508.

Fibonacci Levels:

  • Hourly chart: 1.3000–1.3432
  • 4-hour chart: 1.2299–1.3432
Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for February 28, 2025: sell below 1.0430 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, EUR/USD is trading around 1.0398 within the downtrend channel forming on the H4 chart since February 25th, below the 21 SMA, and below

Dimitrios Zappas 13:53 2025-02-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD. February 28th. The Uptrend Has Come to an End

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Thursday, first consolidating below the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.2642 and then breaching the support zone at 1.2611–1.2620. This

Samir Klishi 10:41 2025-02-28 UTC+2

Forex forecast 28/02/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 09:33 2025-02-28 UTC+2

The Anticipated Peace in Europe Is Expected to Drive Gold Prices Lower

After reaching a new all-time high earlier this week, gold prices have decisively declined in response to reports of successful negotiations between world leaders Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump

Pati Gani 08:38 2025-02-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for February 28, 2025

Yesterday, the stock market experienced a decline of 1.58% in the S&P 500, while the dollar index rose by 0.83%. The yield on 5-year U.S. government bonds dropped from 4.27%

Laurie Bailey 03:58 2025-02-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for February 28, 2025

On Wednesday, the British pound reached the target level of 1.2708 but quickly fell below 1.2616 on Thursday. Today, the price begins the day awaiting new signals. From a technical

Laurie Bailey 03:57 2025-02-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for February 28, 2025

On the daily chart, the price is consolidating around the level of 149.38. If this is indeed a consolidation phase, we can expect a decline in price. The target

Laurie Bailey 03:57 2025-02-28 UTC+2

USD/CAD Forecast for February 28, 2025

On the daily chart, the price is nearing a significant resistance level, which is characterized by the MACD line, the price channel line, and the resistance at 1.4464

Laurie Bailey 03:57 2025-02-28 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for February 27-28, 2025: sell if breaks 1.0470 (21 SMA - 200 EMA)

The Eagle Indicator has been showing a negative divergence since February 20th which means that we could expect a sharp drop in the euro if EUR/USD consolidates below

Dimitrios Zappas 16:25 2025-02-27 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for February 27-28, 2025: buy above $2,876 (21 SMA - rebound)

On the contrary, if the instrument falls below 2,876, we could expect a further bearish movement. So, the price could reach 5/8 Murray located at 2,851, and it could even

Dimitrios Zappas 13:57 2025-02-27 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.