empty
06.03.2025 11:03 AM
From delays to exemptions: S&P 500 finds support

The S&P 500 found solid ground after the White House decided to exempt the auto industry from the 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada. Donald Trump and his team are now considering another exception—agricultural products, particularly potash and fertilizers. This move could provide yet another boost for US stocks.

However, the revision of the tariff list was not the only reason for the S&P 500's rebound. Support also came from international markets. Germany plans to create a €500 billion special infrastructure fund and exempt defense spending from fiscal constraints. The European Union is preparing to increase military spending by €800 billion. China has maintained its 5% GDP growth target, signaling further fiscal and monetary stimulus. Countries are bracing for trade wars, which suggests that such conflicts won't completely derail the global economy.

Recession fears grow for the US economy

Meanwhile, recession risks for the US economy have resurfaced. According to JP Morgan, the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months has risen from 17% to 31% since late November. Goldman Sachs estimates that the scenario has increased from 14% in January to 23%.

Recession risks for US stocks

This image is no longer relevant

A recession spells trouble for US stocks. Donald Trump's statement that America must endure "some pain" before entering a new Golden Age is not reassuring for investors. The President's rapid tariff rollout has shattered market hopes that his threats were merely a bluff.

At the same time, Elon Musk is also pushing forward aggressively, accelerating efforts to reduce government bureaucracy—a move that could further slow the US economy. A fresh warning sign came with February's ADP employment report, which showed only 77,000 new private-sector jobs, the smallest increase in two years. Fearing the White House's aggressive protectionism, companies are hesitant to expand hiring.

This image is no longer relevant

Will Powell step in to support the market?

Investors are now eagerly awaiting US labor market data and Jerome Powell's comments. If Trump refuses to throw a lifeline to the S&P 500, could the Federal Reserve Chairman step in instead?

Signs of a cooling US economy have led futures markets to raise expectations for three rate cuts in 2025, up from two previously. If Powell confirms this outlook, it could trigger another wave of optimism for the S&P 500.

Technical outlook for S&P 500

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 has bounced off the expected support at 5,740, forming a potential bottom. The probability of consolidation is increasing, with the upper border likely near 5,940 or 5,980. A rejection from these levels could signal profit-taking on long positions from the dip and a possible reversal.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Why the U.S. Dollar Keeps Falling

The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since January 2024 after President Donald Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve sparked concerns over the central bank's independence. The dollar weakened

Jakub Novak 11:12 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Loss of Confidence in the Fed Will Pressure the Dollar (Bitcoin Likely to Continue Rising, USD/CAD to Decline)

On Monday, the U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline, pulling down many global exchanges, as the "turbulent" actions of President Trump continue to shift from one hot topic

Pati Gani 09:00 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Market: Still Waters Run Deep

It's impossible to inject capital into an economy destabilized by politics. Capital continues to flow out of the United States, and Donald Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve only accelerate

Marek Petkovich 08:52 2025-04-22 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 22? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday—neither in the U.S., the Eurozone, Germany, nor the U.K. Thus, even if the market were paying any attention to macroeconomic data, it simply

Paolo Greco 07:46 2025-04-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 22: Dollar Decline Neutralizes Any Positive Economic Changes

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded higher on Monday despite no clear reasons or fundamental grounds for this movement. However, the pound has risen even on days when the euro

Paolo Greco 03:12 2025-04-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 22: The Emperor Has No Clothes...

The EUR/USD currency pair began Monday with a sharp drop from the opening. Interestingly, this time, the fall of the US dollar wasn't triggered by the American president. Any specific

Paolo Greco 03:12 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Will Trump Fire Powell?

The U.S. Dollar Index updated a three-year low on Monday, falling into the 97 range (for the first time since March 2022). The greenback started the trading week with

Irina Manzenko 01:07 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Panic hasn't gone anywhere – the dollar is being sold off, gold is rising, and the S&P 500 has turned downward again

The total speculative bearish position on the US dollar more than doubled over the reporting week, reaching -$10.1 billion. The Canadian dollar and the yen strengthened the most, while

Kuvat Raharjo 01:07 2025-04-22 UTC+2

The Dollar Meant Well. But Things Went as Usual

Be careful what you wish for. Donald Trump's desire to make America great again and return to a golden age is backfiring by eroding trust in U.S. assets, capital flight

Marek Petkovich 01:07 2025-04-22 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to show strong demand, trading near its all-time high, just below the key psychological level of $3400. The hardline international trade policy pursued by U.S. President Donald Trump

Irina Yanina 19:15 2025-04-21 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.