Forex Analysis & Reviews: 13.09.2012

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13.09.2012 04:55 PM

-Today the Fed announcement- Fundamental Analysis, for September 13, 2012

This day was highly awaited by the markets, especially by New York stock market.
The Fed will announce its next steps at noon which will give stimulus to the U.S. economy, which in recent months demonstrated weakness of its key indicators such as employment growth.
In August employment figures were very low, with virtually zero inflation, and with the assurance that they will not move interest rates until 2014 and not until 2015, we expect that the Fed will announce a new bond purchase plan, called QE3. Will it be the solution? Probably not, but it will help to generate more movement in the economy.
Bernanke was very skeptical and pessimistic about the current situation as he saw that the $ 2.3 trillion that was used in two previous plans has not done much. For instance, the unemployment rate remains above 8%.
The fact that inflation does not grow despite mountains of money injected into the economy, demonstrates the magnitude of the crisis which started four years ago with the fall of Lehman Brothers. The U.S. economy had, however, entered recession in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Apart from the long-term consequences of present actions scheduled for today by the Fed, it calls attention to the prevailing climate of euphoria in the American stock exchanges. The Dow Jones is breaking records since December 2007 with a closing at 13,333 points Wednesday, although, it is just 9 points higher than Tuesday's close.
European currencies go down in these circumstances with a rare blend of optimism for the anticipated European Stability Mechanism, adopted on Tuesday in Germany, but they are also playing multi-month highs.
Naturally, with an announcement expected in the next few hours, the movements of the dollar pairs are measured and limited. But undoubtedly, the dollar will be shaken by the news of Bernanke and his people.
Is it so sure that the dollar will fall today? Actually, no. The leading currency is much oversold against the euro and the sterling, The Swiss franc and the yen only look slightly firmer against the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.
We have an impression that it will continue its downward path, but with a previous correction. Before QE3 starts, what would be the reason for this correction? Perhaps, Bernanke will announce something that will not completely satisfy the markets. The answer will be given at 12:30 ET.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.