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19.03.2013 11:07 AM
EUR/USD. Forecast for March 19, 2013

Cyprus’s parliament was set to reject a divisive tax on bank deposits in a vote on Tuesday (18:00 GMT+4).

Trade balance in the Eurozone was 9 billion euros against for expectations for 10.4 billion. NAHM Housing Market Index was 44 in March, down 2 points from the previous figure. Results were below expectations, with economists forecasting a reading of 48. Nevertheless, the euro headed for the closure of morning’s gap.

Today at 14:00 GMT+4 ZEW Survey in March is issued. ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany is expected to be at the level of 47.9 vs. 48.2 in February, in the Euro Area it is forecast to be 43.7 against 42.7.

At 16:30 GMT+4 data on US Building Permits in February is forecast to be 0.93 million vs. 0.9 million in January, US Housing Starts is expected 0.92 million (y-o-y) vs. 0.89 million.

We consider if the levy in Cyprus’s banks is adopted (it is most likely), then according to historic perspective it will not have negative impact on the rate of the euro.

From the technical point of view, we expect the gap will be closed. After the price consolidates above the Kruzenshtern line (blue sliding) on the H4 (higher 1.2985), the targets on the H4 open. They are specified by the Fibonacci extension levels 1.3028, 1.3052. Then these targets on the daily chart open 1.3060 and 1.3139 (the high of October 17, 2012 and January 8 respectively).

 

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Laurie Bailey,
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