Forex Analysis & Reviews: 13.11.2013 - Fundamental review of the...

13.11.2013 11:51 AM

Fundamental review of the Forex market for November 13, 2013

Yesterday the major event was the publication of the data on inflation in the UK in October and followed it the drop of the British pound. Consumer Price Index (y/y) dropped from 2.7% to 2.2% vs. expectations for 2.5%. Core CPI fell from 2.2% to 1.7%, Retail price Index fell from 3.2% to 2.6%. The British pound lost 85 points.

Today at 13:30 UTC+4 data on Unemployment Rate in the UK is revealed. The Unemployment Rate in September is expected to drop from 7.7% to 7.6%. At 14:30 UTC+4 BOE Inflation Report and at the same time Mark Carney speaks. Despite the decline in inflation data in October which was the result of decline in energy prices (oil depreciated 5.5% in October); the report may contain forecast for the increase in Inflation which with strong labour data may direct the pounds’ quotes upwards. The relevant indicator for a forecast of the released tomorrow Retail Sales data will be released today data on Average earnings in September (at 13:30 UTC+4), forecast 0.7% as in August. If the growth is higher, then we may expect the index of the Sales higher than expected.

At 14:00 UTC+4 data on Industrial production in the Eurozone in September is revealed; forecast -0.2% vs. 1.0% in August. Data is expected to grow 0.1% from -2.1% (y/y).

The growth of the euro we expect to the area 1.3500/45. Target levels for the British pound are 1.5945/55 and 1.6000.

USD/JPY.

Yesterday two indictors for Japan were published, the data was mixed. Consumer Confidence Index in October dropped from 45.4 to 41.2; Preliminary machine Tool Orders in October grew 8.4% (y/y). The growth of the yen followed the rise of the stock market (Nikkei225 +1.9%), which grew partly flowing the US market and amid strong data provided by some banks (profit of the Chiba Bank 20.8% annually; the company’s shares added 5.9%) and such companies as Honda Motor (+1.7%), Fuji (+2.6%), and Sony (+3.6%). However, we consider the Japanese market starts experiencing the growing tension.

Published today Core Machinery Orders in Japan in September fell 2.1% vs. a 5.4% rise in August and expectations for -1.8%. Nikkei225 has lost 0.46% today. Tomorrow data on Japanese GDP in the third quarter is revealed; forecast 0.4% vs. 0.9% in the second quarter.

We expect the decline to the levels of 99.00, 98.70, 98.35, 98.00, and 97.60.

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