विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 26.09.2018

26.09.2018 05:02 PM

EUR / USD: an increase in the interest rate of the Fed may create risks for the growth of the US dollar

Today, it is expected that during a two-day meeting, the US Federal Reserve will decide to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. Thus, the interest rate may amount to 2.25%, which will further bring it closer to the target level.

Problems with the US dollar after the decision of the Fed can begin today.

In the market, there was talk that in 2019, the Fed could raise the rate two more times, just 50 basis points. After that, the Central Bank will indicate that the monetary policy corresponds to the target level. It is also expected that at this meeting, the Fed may declare that it no longer considers its policy as soft, which will lead to a high volatility in the market.

If such statements are made, then the withdrawal of the Central Bank from the stimulating policy will mean the completion of the cycle of raising interest rates in the near future and reaching the neutral level that the committee has been seeking for the past 10 years.

The attention of traders will be concentrated on one more forecast, which will concern year 2021. It is expected that the average forecast of the Fed economists at the interest rate will be 3.4%, which will also indicate the end of the policy tightening cycle, which in turn will limit the space for the growth of short-term interest rates, and also, weaken the US dollar in the world arena against most risky assets.

Talking about any technical prospects for the movement of the EUR / USD currency pair today will not be entirely appropriate, since it is necessary to determine the direction of the trend further. The breakthrough of the large resistance of 1.1800 will lead to the formation of a new upward trend in the euro, which will retain the medium-term upward potential. In the event of a decline under the support area of 1.1720, the pressure on the euro will increase significantly, and the demolition of stop orders below this level will immediately lead to a large sale and a break in the upward trend.

Donald Trump and Trade Agreements

Returning to the topic of trade agreements, Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau recently said that Canada wants to join the trade agreement concluded between Mexico and the United States. To do this, it is necessary to carefully study all the conditions and use the opportunities that have helped to reach an agreement with Mexico. Representatives of US business circles urged the authorities to do everything possible to avoid Canada's exclusion from the trade agreement.

Let me remind you that yesterday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said that the US and Mexico are ready to conclude a free trade agreement without the participation of Canada.

President of the United States Donald Trump, speaking before the UN General Assembly, said that OPEC is stealing the whole world in terms of oil sales, once again saying that against such high prices. Quotes of oil reacted to the statements made only by a small surge in volatility, continuing to move to annual highs.

Trump also noted that Washington will only help those countries that respect and have friendly relations with the US, hinting at trade wars.

Traders of the British pound took a wait-and-see attitude before the decision of the Fed, and also do not hurry to open new long positions because of statements made recently by the Labor Party of Great Britain.

Party spokesman Keir Starmer said that the Labor Party is likely to vote against the Brexit deal that May seeks to conclude with the EU. They are also inclined to hold a second referendum on EU membership if talks with Brussels fail.

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Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
InstaForex के विश्लेषणात्मक विशेषज्ञ
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