Alfred Hitchcock said that before the climax of the moment, which in no case can not show the main villain. After all, it will cease to be something incomprehensible and mysterious as soon as evil appears in appearance. But it was precisely this mistake that was made by all those who, from each iron, shouted that the European Central Bank would announce plans to lower interest rates and perhaps also to resume the program of quantitative easing. That is, they diligently painted the face of almost existential horror and when Mario Draghi came out to the public, everyone understood that the devil is not so terrible as he is painted. The head of the European Central Bank reiterated that interest rates would remain at current levels, at least until mid-2020. Although, this is already known to everyone for a long time when such plans were first announced. The only thing that could have alerted was the words of Mario Draghi that some of the members of the Board of the European Central Bank raised the question of the possibility of lowering interest rates, as well as the resumption of the quantitative easing program, but in the end, the decision to leave everything as it was made unanimously. The head of the European Central Bank merely noted that the regulator will proceed from the macroeconomic situation. Moreover, given that the forecast for economic growth and inflation has not changed much, it becomes clear that no changes are foreseen, at least for now. The final GDP data for the first quarter showed unchanged economic growth rates as if confirming the forecasts of the European Central Bank. Hence, these are the words of Mario Draghi that some of the members of the board of the European Central Bank raised the question of the possibility of lowering interest rates, as well as the resumption of the quantitative easing program.
The dollar became cheaper not only because of the painstaking increase in panic but also because of its own macroeconomic statistics, which again proved to be extremely depressing. In particular, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 18 thousand, instead of reducing by 7 thousand. All of these happened solely because of the increase in the number of repeated applications, then the number of primary ones remained unchanged. Thus, this data has become a kind of addition to the ADP Employment Report, which is all on the eve of today's publication of a report by the United States Department of Labor.
Naturally, the report of the United States Department of Labor is the main event of the day and perhaps a week. Moreover, no more data is released today with the exception of inventories in the warehouses of wholesale trade, which should grow by another 0.7%. After all, these same stocks, the last time declined as much in October 2017, which does not allow to get rid of the thought of the approaching classic crisis of overproduction. However, the predictions on the content of the report of the Ministry of Labor look rather strange. Thus, the average working week should increase from 34.4 hours to 34.5 hours, and the growth rate of the average hourly wage may remain unchanged. The combination of these two factors can only cause optimism, especially since the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. Of course, outside agriculture, about 185 thousand new jobs were created as expected against 263 thousand in the previous month. Although we are talking about a decrease, the forecast value is still at an acceptable mark. Yet, such forecasts raise many questions, as well as the ADP report and data on applications for unemployment benefits, tell us about a completely different one.
Moreover, it turns out to be extremely strange, as with a decrease in the rate of creation of new jobs. The unemployment rate may remain unchanged since the share of labor in the total population should increase from 62.8% to 62.9%. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that the content of the report will turn out to be somewhat worse than expected but such forecasts raise many questions. The ADP report and data on applications for unemployment benefits also tell us about a completely different one.
If the forecasts on the report of the Ministry of Labor are confirmed then the dollar will receive little support, the single European currency will be forced to decline to 1.1225. But if all these forecasts turn out to be nothing, then it is worth waiting for the growth of the single European currency to 1.1300 with an attempt to pass even higher.
The pound will be forced to repeat the actions of its continental neighbor and if the forecasts on the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor coincide, it will have to decline to 1.2650. Otherwise, it is worth waiting for the growth of the pound to 1.2750.
