empty
20.09.2019 09:40 AM
Unstable equilibrium in the markets, USDCAD tends to grow, USD JPY loses momentum

Oil prices are stable after the shocks of September 14. The threat of rising risks in the Middle East remains hypothetical and does not have a noticeable effect on quotes. On the other hand, gold is trading in the range, while there is no news about changes in the positions of the USA and China before the October meeting, there are no reasons to leave the range either. The stock indices of the Asia-Pacific countries and Europe are in the green zone, however, the growth is minimal and indicates more likely an unstable balance than the growth of positive.

USD CAD

Canada's inflation rate remains high, but recent data are worse than expected. The basic index fell by 0.1% in August, year-on-year the index fell from 2.0% to 1.9%. The decline primarily relates to commodity prices, which is quite correlated with worsening expectations for the manufacturing sector.

This image is no longer relevant

The attack on the refining capacities of Saudi Arabia and the subsequent surge in oil prices did not have a noticeable effect on the Canadian dollar. Such calmness of the "loonie" indirectly indicates that oil is close to its peak, and to support the growth of quotations against the backdrop of a global slowdown can only be the threat of a total deficit, which is unlikely in current realities. Neither OPEC, nor even the United States is ready to cut production so that quotes resume growth.

Loonie is still holding onto due to lowering trade tensions and supply stability, but trends remain negative. PMI reports are also weak, the trade balance is slipping down, and although there are no clear signs of an approaching recession, there is no impulse that can support the growth of the Canadian dollar.

USDCAD has formed a local minimum 1.3129 and resumes the movement to resistance 1.3383 with an eye to the next target 1.3440 / 50. The momentum is weak, and there is no reason to expect rapid growth.

USDJPY

The basic consumer price index rose in August by 0.5% y / y, which is slightly more than the forecasted 0.6%,

This image is no longer relevant

Starting October 1, the consumption tax rate will increase from 8% to 10%. However, it should be noted that raising the rate does not encourage people to raise inflationary expectations, that is, they do not consider it obvious that suppliers of goods and services will also consistently and proportionally raise prices. The Japanese government raises the tax, guided by the results of studies that a tax increase of 1% will lead to the expectation of higher prices, but practice does not yet confirm this conclusion.

In the foreground for the Japanese consumers are completely different criteria - the lack of growth in nominal wages and concerns about income after retirement. These are consequences of decades of dominant deflationary ideology, which the financial authorities of Japan have not been able to break since at least 2014, when a large-scale stimulus plan was launched and the consumption tax increased from 5% to 8%.

The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged during the meeting on Thursday, although the market was inclined to believe that some measures would be taken. Perhaps, the Bank of Japan intends to wait for the results of the increase in the consumption tax, but in any case, the absence of inflation before the increase in the consumption tax increases the chances that BoJ will decide on stimulus measures at the meeting in October.

In the long run, the yen is thus influenced by the low inflation factor, the low income factor and, as a consequence, the need for stimulation. These factors are in favor of lowering the yen, as the chances of a full-fledged trade agreement between the US and China. However, all these calculations will fly into the pipe, if the threat of global slowdown dominates. In this case, raw materials will go down, and the yen will go up.

In the short term, the yen has no direction. The factors pushing USDJPY up have been worked out. The yen will most likely form a peak, after which the movement towards strong support 104.40 / 60 will begin.

Kuvat Raharjo,
InstaForex के विश्लेषणात्मक विशेषज्ञ
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Evgeny Klimov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • चैन्सी डिपॉजिट
    $ 3,000 के साथ अपना खाता जमा करें और प्राप्त करें $4000 अधिक!
    में जुलाई हम आकर्षित करते हैं $4000 चैंसी डिपॉज़िट में
    ट्रेडिंग अकाउंट में $ 3,000 जमा करके जीतने का अवसर प्राप्त करें इस शर्त को पूरा करके आप प्रतियोगिता में भाग ले सकते हैं
    कॉन्टेस्ट में हिस्सा लें

अनुशंसित लेख

ट्रम्प के व्यापार सौदों में पर्याप्त विवरण का अभाव

यह स्पष्ट है कि घरेलू मुद्रास्फीति के जोखिमों के कारण ब्याज दरों में कटौती करने में फ़ेडरल रिज़र्व की हिचकिचाहट, राष्ट्रपति ट्रंप द्वारा कई प्रमुख व्यापारिक साझेदारों के साथ किए

Jakub Novak 18:58 2025-07-30 UTC+2

बाज़ार आशावाद की लहर पर क्यों सवार हैं? (तेल की कीमतों में वृद्धि और सोने की कीमतों में गिरावट की संभावना है)

हाल की घटनाएँ—जिनमें जापान और यूरोपीय संघ के साथ सीमा शुल्क समझौतों पर वाशिंगटन की विजयी घोषणाएँ भी शामिल हैं—जोखिम वाली संपत्तियों की माँग को बढ़ावा दे रही हैं।

Pati Gani 18:57 2025-07-30 UTC+2

फेड द्वारा स्पष्ट संकेत भेजने की संभावना नहीं

हालांकि यूरो और ब्रिटिश पाउंड अमेरिकी डॉलर के मुकाबले मामूली बढ़त दिखा रहे हैं, लेकिन जेरोम पॉवेल से फेडरल रिजर्व द्वारा ब्याज दरों में कटौती के संकेत की उम्मीद

Jakub Novak 18:56 2025-07-30 UTC+2

AUD/USD एक महत्वपूर्ण रिलीज़ से पहले

30 जुलाई को ऑस्ट्रेलिया में दूसरे क्वार्टर के लिए मुद्रास्फीति की वृद्धि पर महत्वपूर्ण डेटा जारी किया जाएगा। यह रिलीज़ AUD/USD जोड़ी के लिए अत्यंत महत्वपूर्ण है, खासकर रिजर्व बैंक

Irina Manzenko 06:14 2025-07-30 UTC+2

फेड सितंबर तक प्रतीक्षा और निरीक्षण की नीति पर बना रहेगा।

संभावना है कि कुछ नरम संकेत (डोविश हिंट्स) दिए जाएंगे, लेकिन वे शायद फेडरल रिजर्व अधिकारियों के पिछले बयानों और वक्तव्यों से भिन्न नहीं होंगे। यह 2025 की फेड की

Chin Zhao 06:02 2025-07-30 UTC+2

ट्रम्प किसी न किसी तरह फेड को हराएंगे।

डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प दुनिया की वैश्विक व्यवस्था को लगातार नया स्वरूप दे रहे हैं। अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति दुनिया के लगभग आधे देशों को शर्तें थोपते रहते हैं — और अब तक उनकी

Chin Zhao 05:58 2025-07-30 UTC+2

बाज़ार अपना जोखिम प्रीमियम खो रहा है

असलियत बारीकियों में छिपी है। डोनाल्ड ट्रंप के सबसे महत्वपूर्ण व्यापार समझौते पर S&P 500 की धीमी प्रतिक्रिया बहुत कुछ कहती है। कुछ लोगों का मानना है कि जापान के

Marek Petkovich 19:27 2025-07-29 UTC+2

EU–US ट्रेड डील। भाग 2

सोमवार को मुझे यह आभास हुआ कि यूरोप में बहुत कम लोग जानते थे कि वॉन डर लेयेन किन रियायतों को देने वाले थे। अमेरिकी पक्ष शायद अपने मांगों को

Chin Zhao 07:02 2025-07-29 UTC+2

EU–US व्यापार समझौता: भाग 1

1 अगस्त, जो कि बातचीत की अंतिम समय सीमा है, से चार दिन पहले, यूरोपीय संघ और संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिका ने एक व्यापार समझौते पर हस्ताक्षर करने की घोषणा की।

Chin Zhao 06:57 2025-07-29 UTC+2

GBP/USD अवलोकन – 29 जुलाई: अमेरिकी डॉलर आखिरकार ट्रंप पर भरोसा करने लगा

GBP/USD मुद्रा जोड़ी सोमवार को गिरावट जारी रखी। ब्रिटिश पाउंड ने पिछले सप्ताह अपने नीचे जाने की प्रक्रिया शुरू की थी, और तब हमने निष्कर्ष निकाला था कि इसके पीछे

Paolo Greco 06:54 2025-07-29 UTC+2
अभी बात नहीं कर सकते?
अपना प्रश्न पूछें बातचीत.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.