4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: -37.6305
The EUR/USD currency pair starts the new week with a corrective movement. At the moment, the quotes of the euro/dollar pair have increased to the moving average line, so the question now is: will the pair rebound from the moving average, which will allow the downward movement to resume? From a technical point of view, the odds are 50/50. If the rebound - then a further downward movement, if the overcoming - then a continuation of the upward movement with the prospect of forming a new upward trend. In macroeconomic terms, the first trading day of the week will be completely empty and uninteresting. Usually, these days are used by traders for correction. However, firstly, the correction has already started on Friday, and secondly, market participants still ignore almost all the macroeconomic information, so an "empty" Monday is not a big disappointment for them. Thus, in the first place on April 27 will again stand "technique".
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who, according to many media outlets, was embarrassed at his last briefing at the White House, when he began to reflect on the treatment of the human body with injections of disinfectants and sunlight, took offense at the journalists. On Saturday, the US President refused to hold a daily briefing, and later wrote on Twitter: "What is the point of holding a White House press conference if the media asks nothing but hostile questions, and then refuses to accurately report the truth or facts? They get record ratings, and Americans get nothing but fake news. Not worth the time and effort."
A few days ago, we already wrote that Donald Trump stopped funding WHO, accusing this organization of mistakes in countering the spread of the COVID-2019 virus, and then accused China of the fact that the "coronavirus" could get released completely by accident, and the Chinese authorities did not notify the whole world in time about the scale of the disease and that the virus is capable of being transmitted from person to person. Trump also accused China of distorting the facts, which also contributed to the spread of the virus around the world. "If there was no mistake, then China must answer for its actions," the US leader said, and many European leaders agree with him, whose countries are also suffering huge losses due to the pandemic and quarantine. However, at the same time, we said that Trump needs "scapegoats" in order to approach the elections in November "clean". After all, the "coronavirus" destroyed the main trumps of the American President – strong economic growth and GDP, the lowest unemployment in the last 50 years, and the strongest state of the labor market. Of these three trumps that could have helped Trump win, he now has nothing on his hands. Accordingly, what will the US leader say to his voters when the election campaigns begin? Of course, he can always claim that before the outbreak of the epidemic, there were excellent results of his work. However, voters have always been interested in specific victories and achievements of the leadership, not explanations of why everyone is living poorly now. Trump understands this and is preparing now. Search for "guilty" that the American economy is declining, and the number of unemployed for the month exceeded 20 million. Following the WHO and China, it was reported that the administration of Donald Trump is considering the possibility of resigning the head of the Ministry of Health, Alex Azar. It is reported that the White House is not happy with Azar's actions in countering the epidemic. Personally, the US President is not happy with the fact that at the very beginning of the epidemic, Azar personally assured Trump that the virus does not pose a great threat to Americans. It is also reported that Azar fired the head of biomedical development, Rick Bright, who was developing a vaccine against "coronavirus". At the same time, the administration itself stressed that they are not going to replace Azar. Thus, while these are just rumors, however, in the case of Donald Trump, "there is no smoke without fire."
Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Biden, the main rival in the struggle for the presidency, believes that Donald Trump will try by all means to postpone the 2020 election to a later date. Despite the fact that right now Trump has the highest political ratings, Joe Biden believes that the President "will try to somehow postpone the election, come up with some reason not to hold them." Also, the main candidate from the Democrats believes that Russia can interfere in the election. The Democratic Party in the face of a pandemic has offered to allow Americans to vote by mail. However, the Republican Party refuses this option. Biden also said that it is just beneficial for Trump to have as few Americans as possible vote in the election if they can't be rescheduled. "This is the only way he can keep the President's seat," the politician summed up.
The former Vice President also criticized Donald Trump for not sending enough aid to cities and states to prevent the firing of public employees, such as firefighters, teachers, and police officers. Biden also resents the fact that the American President does not check the process of spending funds on business assistance programs. "There is no supervision. Trump has made it clear that he is not interested in checking the expenditures. The last thing he wants is for someone to keep track of exactly where the $ 500 billion is going," Biden said. The Democrat also criticized "greedy corporations" that have to be saved for the second time and that live only thanks to American taxpayers.
Thus, 2020 for America promises to be extremely turbulent and at the same time interesting. Given the nature of Trump, it is unlikely that he will simply take and leave the chair of the US President. For sure, he will try to win the election a second time by any means and methods. And we all know what methods Trump has. Thus, the upcoming elections promise to be the most interesting in the history of the United States. However, "coronavirus" can really interfere with the elections. However, it is not yet known how likely the option of postponing the elections is from a legislative point of view.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of April 27 is 77 points. Volatility, therefore, remains average in strength, and there is no reason to expect a new wave of panic yet. Today, we expect the pair's quotes to move between the levels of 1.0744 and 1.0898. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal the end of the upward correction cycle.
Nearest support levels:
S1 - 1.0742
S2 - 1.0620
S3 - 1.0498
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 - 1.0864
R2 - 1.0986
R3 - 1.1108
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair is adjusted against the downward trend. Thus, traders are now recommended to trade down again with targets of 1.0742 and 1.0620, but after the price rebounds from the moving average. It is recommended to consider buying the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price above the moving average with the first goal of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986.
