4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 222.3220

The EUR/USD currency pair starts a new trading week with an upward movement inside a narrow side channel of 1.0780-1.0880. By the end of the last day, the quotes still managed to overcome the upper limit of this channel, so we return to the wider side of the channel 1.0750-1.0990. Now the pair is likely to move to its upper limit, and at the same time to the psychological level of $ 1.10. Volatility on Monday was quite high, although this rarely happens on Mondays. The high activity of traders remained throughout the day, even at the very end of the American session.

In previous articles, we have already said that Donald Trump, by firing another official, provoked a new investigation against himself. Democrats are clinging to any opportunity to show the "true face" of Trump and achieve his non-re-election in November 2020. Fortunately, things are going very well for Trump's main rival, Democrat Joe Biden, according to the latest ratings. At the same time, the situation can turn "upside-down" at any moment. However, this is not the only trial or, to be more precise, a political scandal that is currently taking place in America. We are talking about the so-called "Obamagate" case. Its essence is that Donald Trump at the end of his presidential term intended to put the previous President of the country, Barack Obama, in prison. According to the US leader, Barack Obama tried to influence the results of the 2016 presidential election. "This is the largest political crime in the history of our country. All those who are involved in it, all these schemers-Democrats, they should all be behind bars for a long time," Trump "rumbled" in his usual manner a few days ago. "What happened is a disgrace for the country. This is a real scam, a pure hoax. The people who were behind this should go to prison, and this is waiting for many of the previous President's team. Everyone who was behind it. This is Obama. This is Biden. These people are mired in corruption. They tried to overthrow the legally elected President. It seems that we have caught them," the current US President continued. In the ability to speak in public, Trump can not be denied. So, according to Trump, Barack Obama used his official position to prevent the election of him as the new President of the United States in 2016. The head of the White House believes that it was Obama who led the entire campaign against him and insisted on investigating ties with Russia. Naturally, as in 90% of cases, the American leader did not provide any evidence or arguments. He, as usual, said that the necessary information will appear gradually in the coming weeks and called on journalists to "honestly cover this case". Nothing new. We are not opponents of Donald Trump or his fans, but each of his large-scale and loud statements or actions immediately raises a number of questions that are difficult to find answers to. For example, the first question is: why did Donald Trump raise this topic and start accusing the former President of the country of all mortal sins now, when he himself has no more than six months left in the presidential term? Why now, when the "coronavirus" is raging in the world and in the United States? Opposition forces and the media, as well as neutral journalists and ordinary people, believe that Trump is thus trying to divert the attention of voters from 80,000 deaths from an epidemic in which, according to many Americans, it's his government that is to blame, and again "cast a shadow" on Democrat Joe Biden, who also seems to be involved in this case. We have already said that Trump needs those responsible for the epidemic. This is China. It remains only to promote this direction. We are not saying that China is not to blame, but this strategy is necessary for Trump to be re-elected as President of the United States. Also, the attention of voters needs to be urgently switched in a negative context to the Democrats. Therefore, next to the name of Barack Obama, who in Trump's opinion is to blame, the name of Joe Biden, who is a fellow party member of Obama, was also blamed. Now, Trump and his team will probably spin the version of the guilt of all Democrats that they purposefully oppose him. And China is to blame for the epidemic.

Today in the United States, in addition to the very likely new information from the White House, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to speak in the US Congress. Powell speaks in Congress only a few times a year, so every speech gets a lot of attention. However, at the same time, Powell rarely reports anything new in these speeches. As a rule, all the most important things he says after the Fed meetings. This time it will be about the same. The main theses of Powell's speech will be published before the speech itself. Moreover, over the weekend, Powell gave an interview to CBS and has already revealed his current vision of what is happening in the United States. We believe that the market reaction to this event will be extremely weak.

Also on this day, frankly secondary publications of indicators in the European Union are planned. The index of assessment of current economic conditions, the index of economic sentiment, the index of sentiment in the business environment of the institute. It is easy to guess that all these reports will be extremely weak, but in any case, they are not particularly important for market participants. It will be possible to determine only the general mood of investors. And this mood will determine whether business activity in the EU, in particular in Germany, is beginning to recover.

The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of May 19 is 82 points. Thus, the value of the indicator remains stable and is characterized as "average", despite a fairly active Monday. Today, we expect quotes to move between the levels of 1.0833 and 1.0997. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal a turn of the downward movement within the channel of 1.0750-1.0990.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0864

S2 – 1.0803

S3 – 1.0742

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0925

R2 – 1,0986

R3 – 1.1047

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed above the moving average line, so the current purchase orders with the goals of 1.0925 and 1.0986, the first of which has already been worked out, are relevant now. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate a round of corrective movement within the side channel 1.0750-1.0990. It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair after the quotes exit from the side channel, that is, below the level of 1.0750 with the goal of the Murray level of "-1/8"-1.0681.