विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 02.06.2020

02.06.2020 02:05 AM

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 2. COT report. US-China conflict continues to grow. Bulls need to overcome 1.1147

EUR/USD 1H

The EUR/USD pair calmed down on Monday, but did not start a downward correction on the hourly timeframe. The March 27 high has been worked out, but again the buyers failed to overcome it. The fact that there is still no downward correction at this time, although on Mondays the pair is often corrected against the trend, and on Fridays, indicates the strength of the bulls at this time. Thus, most likely, today will be the third attempt to overcome the 1.1147 level. The pair also continues to trade inside the ascending channel, as well as above two ascending trend lines at once, one of which is long-term and has more than once provided support for traders to increase. Thus, now all technical factors speak in favor of continued growth of the European currency.

EUR/USD 15M

We see the same picture on the 15-minute timeframe. Two linear regression channels, both upward, clearly signal an upward trend on the chart. Thus, at the moment we do not have a single signal on when the upward trend would end.

COT Report

The latest COT report showed that professional traders unexpectedly started buying the euro during the reporting week. Suddenly - because, from our point of view, the fundamental background was and is "not entirely in favor of the euro." To be more precise, it was not in anyone's favor. However, large traders found reasons to open new 7524 purchase contracts. Only 3817 sales contracts were opened for the reporting week, if we take into account the most important group of traders - "professional players" who work in the market with the goal of making a profit due to exchange rate differences. This information is already enough to understand how the mood of large traders for the reporting week has changed. It can be said that the beginning of a new week also remains with buyers.

The overall fundamental background for the pair remains neutral despite the fact that the euro continues to grow steadily, and it might seem that it now has fundamental support. However, important reports were not published on the first trading day of the week. And those reports that were at the disposal of traders from the US and the EU showed minimal discrepancy with the forecast values, and indeed they cannot now be considered important and significant. Indices of business activity in the manufacturing sectors of the EU countries, the European Union as a whole and the United States remain at fairly low levels, although they are beginning to recover slowly. However, much more important events are happening now in the international arena. Traders are still waiting for the end of the next conflict between China and the United States, which is now based not on trade claims and the "injustice of one of the participants", but not on the issue of the coronavirus pandemic, the Hong Kong issue, and they can also participate in this conflict. other countries that also believe that China should pay for the distribution of the COVID-2019 virus and does not have the right to pass the Hong Kong National Security Act.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 2:

1) It is possible for quotes to grow further with the goal of the resistance level for the 4-hour chart at 1.1205. However, the bulls need to exert their strength and still overcome the 1.1147 level for this, from which quotes have already rebounded twice. In this case, the upward trend, which all indicators are now witnessing, will continue. Potential Take Profit in this case will be about 55 points.

2) The second option - bearish - involves consolidating the EUR/USD pair under the rising channel, which will allow sellers to join the game and start trading lower with targets at 1.1045 (Kijun-sen) - 1.0975 (upward trend line ) - 1.0931 (support level) - 1.0891 (Senkou Span B line). Overcoming each of the obstacles will allow you to keep short positions open. Potential Take Profit range from 45 to 200 points.

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