Whale indicator created by on-chain firm Santiment suggests that BTC may repeat its late September to early November rally. At that time, BTC rose to $69,000 from $40,000.

Crypto whales' activity indicates an upward reversal

According to data provided by Santiment, "Bitcoin's number of whale addresses holding 100 to 1,000 $BTC has 193 more addresses in this prestigious club, compared to just 10 weeks ago. The number of whales in this tier has shown some strikingly impressive parallels to $BTC price, historically."

The company notes that this is a good sign for the market. These addresses tend to go up along with bitcoin's price. Additionally, BTC started an upward rise from a low of $40,800 in late September. It tried to approach an all-time high of $69,000 on November 10.

Although bitcoin is currently trading at $49,122, it is still showing good annual results. According to CoinGecko, it grew by 153.9% in 2021.

Demand for risky assets is high again

This year, BTC showed dazzling rallies and hit historical highs. However, shortly after it could enter a correction phase. After the first decline from a high of $67,000 in May, BTC rose even higher. However, during the correction, it consolidated the support level of $40,000.

After touching the historical high of $69,000, BTC is returning to this support level again. Yet, it does not fall below. Despite all the bullish forecasts of the price approaching 100,000 by the end of the year, bitcoin is now hovering between 40,000 and 50,000. Market sentiment is teetering on the edge between weak bullish hopes and bearish fears.

The Crypto Fear and Greed index shows that market sentiment remains bearish compared to last month when risk sentiment was strong.

Analysts are not ready to reject the bullish trend

A well-known analyst writing under the pseudonym PlanB is optimistic about the BTC price of bitcoins, noting that patience is the key to success.

The creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2) model previously predicted that by the end of 2021, bitcoin could reach $100,000. Now, despite the strong bearish bias, he emphasizes that the forecast is not canceled, but delayed.

Other crypto experts also say that bitcoin is preparing for a new rally. Yesterday, Willy Wu talked about metrics that create prerequisites for a rebound of BTC/USD from the current day.

The current trajectory of BTC/USD

There was a similar situation in July and September when bitcoin rose from $28,000, and then from $40,000. Analysts expected a rally amid on-chain data and technical factors despite the fact that the further BTC trajectory was rather unclear.

Now, in my opinion, one should be patient even taking into account the fact that technical indicators have been showing the same signals for several days. When the price consolidates for a prolonged period of time, traders get nervous, especially those who know how to analyze the technical indicators.

Meanwhile, the forecast remains unchanged. The sideways line between the support level of 46934.61 - 47848.69 and the resistance level of 51697.58 acts as the current consolidation range. The pessimistic scenario indicates a deep correction to $40,000. It may come true if the price fixes below 46934.61 - 47848.69.