विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 11.01.2022

11.01.2022 07:16 PM

EUR/USD analysis on January 11, 2022. Jerome Powell's speech fails to surprise markets

The wave layout for EUR/USD on the H4 timeframe remains unchanged. The flat movement has been in place for the whole time, and it is still difficult to say whether the supposed wave d has completed its formation. The entire wave that dates back to November 24 can turn out to be the wave d. Upon its completion, the e in C wave may start to build soon. The supposed wave may also be the first stage of a new ascending (or corrective) trend section that has taken a rather complicated form. At the moment, I tend to think that the descending section of the trend will continue as the rise in quotes has been too uncertain lately. The entire horizontal part of the trend looks like a corrective, rather than an impulse, wave. Therefore, I believe that we are talking about a corrective wave d. In any case, the supposed wave d may have a more extended and complicated form.

Jerome Powell's speech fails to impress investors

The EUR/USD pair was moving within the range of 17 basis points on Tuesday. This means that there was no distinctive trend during the day. The pair is still holding near the high of the supposed wave d but not much can be done with this. There is still a flat movement on the chart. According to the current wave layout, the demand for the US currency is set to increase. However, the market is struggling to find the driving factor that would push USD higher. Today, ECB President Christine Lagarde made a statement that did not give any new hints to the market. Also, Jerome Powell testified before the Senate almost an hour ago. He spoke about his possible reappointment for the second term as the head of the Fed. I did not expect much from the Fed this time. It has been displaying a clear hawkish stance lately, so there is hardly any uncertainty regarding the regulator's future monetary policy. Markets accepted the fact the Fed is planning to roll back its QE program in the coming months. Besides, investors are ready for two or even three rate hikes this year. What else could Powell add to this? He noted that inflation is staying at the highest levels, and the regulator is doing everything possible to tackle its rise. Jerome Powell also added that the target for labor market recovery is still relevant for the Fed and it will focus on it. Therefore, Powell's rhetoric has not changed much, and he is likely to be reappointed by the Senate as the head of the Fed. Voting will take place soon. Lael Brainard will be nominated as the Fed Vice Chair. Initially, Joe Biden considered her for the position of Fed Chair. Many experts approve of Biden's decision saying that this was a wise step to keep Powell at his current position. All this news, however, is unlikely to increase the attractiveness of the US dollar.

Conclusion

Based on the analysis above, I can conclude that the formation of the descending wave C is likely to be completed. However, the internal structure of this wave suggests that another descending wave may start to form soon. Thus, I advise selling the pair with the targets around 1.1152 until there is a successful breakout of the d wave's high. You can place a stop-loss order above the peak of the wave d. One position will be enough as the MACD indicator turns down quite often.