विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 16.07.2022

16.07.2022 03:01 PM

Is Bitcoin preparing for another collapse?

This week, the first cryptocurrency in the world continued to trade in a tight range near the Fibonacci level of 127.2 percent. Recall that Bitcoin plummeted to this level a few weeks ago during the subsequent fall and has not been able to adjust regularly since then. Does anything come to mind? The "bitcoin" is as weak as the euro or the pound. Consequently, the movement has been primarily sideways or flat for several weeks. Let's focus on the period immediately preceding the previous autumn. Bitcoin has been going exclusively sideways for several consecutive weeks. What do these portions reveal? Only that there are currently no buyers on the market. If they were, the falls would be mitigated somewhat. Consequently, we anticipate that the bitcoin price may continue to decline during the next two weeks. Is it conceivable, from a fundamental standpoint?

Moreover, remember that the "foundation" has been unchanged for a long time. The Fed remains committed to hiking the federal funds rate, the QT program has begun to reduce the money supply in the US economy, and geopolitics is so complicated that very few individuals are prepared to take risks around the globe today. In such circumstances, the demand for the safest assets increases while the demand for riskier assets decreases. And bitcoin is one of the riskiest assets in the world if it can even be considered an asset. This week, a report on inflation in the United States was released, revealing another increase to 9.1 percent. In other words, inflation continues to rise regardless of any measures made by the Fed. This indicates that on July 26-27, the rate could be increased not by 0.75 percent, but by 1.00 percent immediately. Recall that a few weeks ago, even an option with an increase of 0.75 percent seemed unlikely, as this would be the second straight 0.75 percent increase. Even a 1.00 percent tightening now seems plausible. And any monetary policy tightening is a new blow to risky assets. Thus, from a fundamental perspective, bitcoin may continue to fall to at least $ 10,000 per coin without concern. Or even below.

Technically speaking, the cryptocurrency is still below the trend line and is not even attempting to climb towards it. Theoretically, a fixation above this level can cause a rather substantial Bitcoin price increase. However, the price is moving away from this line, not towards it.

On a 24-hour timescale, "bitcoin" prices were locked below the $ 24,350 threshold. Consequently, the target itself is now $ 12,426. The "bitcoin" has twice attempted to surpass $ 18,500 (127.2 percent Fibonacci) and is currently attempting to do so for the third time. Bitcoin can now theoretically fall to any value, including zero. This is improbable, but we predict that the rate of 5,000 to 10,000 dollars per coin will become a reality in 2022. The breaking of the $ 18,500 threshold will signify a new buying opportunity.

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