विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 29.05.2023

29.05.2023 04:51 AM

The week may start volatile as the U.S. Congress made a decision on the national debt

Both instruments continue to decline steadily even with the news background, which is not always "strong". Over the weekend, however, there was quite expected news from the U.S. Congress about the national debt limit. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirmed June 1 as the "hard deadline" for the US to raise the debt ceiling or risk defaulting on its obligations. Since no one in the market doubted that the Democrats and Republicans would eventually find common ground, the decision and its announcement were just already expected. US President Joe Biden's press office reported that the White House and House Republicans have striked an agreement, meaning an official bill will be passed by June 1 that would raise the debt ceiling by another $2 trillion. Problem solved, and the week could start volatile for the markets.

There is nothing scheduled for Monday. Nevertheless, many instruments can show good activity as they haven't had the opportunity to react to the news of raising the debt limit over the weekend. Since this decision is positive for the US economy, it is reasonable to expect an increase in demand for the US currency. However, some analysts believe that the recent appreciation of the US dollar was driven by rising risk aversion sentiment. Despite the default risk that threatened the US and the dollar, many investors may have used it as a "safe haven." Personally, I don't believe in such an assumption, but I can't speak for every individual. I expect active movements on Monday, but it doesn't make sense to guess the direction.

In any case, regardless of the direction of both instruments, we can assume that this movement will not disrupt the overall wave pattern. If the euro and the pound rise on Monday-Tuesday, it can be considered as a corrective wave within a downtrend. In the opposite case, the main wave will continue to form. We have much more important news and reports, such as the US labor market or inflation in the European Union. The wave pattern is highly important for the market right now, as instruments can move in a certain direction based solely on it.

The topic regarding central bank rates is currently losing some of its appeal. Last week, there were many speeches by European Central Bank and Federal Reserve members, but we did not receive any clarity on the topic. I believe that there is a consensus on this issue, and the new speeches did not change it.

Based on the analysis conducted, I conclude that the uptrend phase has ended. Therefore, I would recommend selling at this point, as the instrument has enough room to fall. I believe that targets around 1.0500-1.0600 are quite realistic. These are the targets I suggest for selling the instrument.

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair has long indicated the formation of a new downtrend wave. Wave b could be very deep, as all waves have recently been equal. A successful attempt to break through 1.2445, which equates to 100.0% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is ready to sell. I recommend selling the pound with targets around 23 and 22 figures. But most likely, the decline will be stronger.

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