विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 25.04.2016

25.04.2016 08:24 AM

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 25, 2016

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range as the bias remains bullish. Last Friday US stocks were mixed while technology shares were weighed down by disappointing results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 18003, the S&P 500 was broadly flat at 2091, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8% to 4945.

Nymex crude oil gained 1.3% to $43.73 a barrel, gold settled down 1.6% at $1,230 an ounce, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed further to 1.888% from 1.870% Thursday.

On the forex front, USD/JPY surged 2.1% to a 3-week high of 111.78 last Friday as it was reported that the Bank of Japan would expand the negative interest-rate policy it initiated in January. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index then rose 0.6% to 86.70.

Meanwhile, the euro continued to weaken following comments made by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Thursday, who hinted at possible further rate cuts. EUR/USD slid another 0.5% to 1.1230.

At the same time, GBP/USD rebounded 0.6% to 1.4401 as betting odds and polls pointed to lower chances of "Brexit".

Commodities-linked currencies were mixed, as USD/CAD declined 0.5% to 1.2668, while AUD/USD dropped 0.4% to 0.7703 and NZD/USD was down 0.9% to 0.6848.The pair rose to 111.80 before entering a consolidation last Friday. Currently it is trading below the 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average, which still stands above the 50-period one. And the intraday relative strength index has crossed below the neutrality level of 50, indicating downward momentum and the possibility of a further consolidation. However, as long as the level of 110.75 (a key resistance seen last Friday, the breaking of which led to the latest upleg) holds as the key support, the intraday outlook remains bullish and the pair is expected to challenge the first upside target at 111.80.

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 111.80 and the second one, at 112.45. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 110.25 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 109.90. The pivot point is at 110.75.

Resistance levels: 111.80, 112.45, 112.90

Support levels: 110.25, 109.90, 109.15

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