Analisis Forex & Kajian: 14.06.2018 - Trading plan for 14/06/2018

14.06.2018 10:10 AM

Trading plan for 14/06/2018

Despite the hawkish Fed, the USD was unable to achieve a lasting strengthening, disappointed with the failure to return 10-year margins of over 3.0%. Moving attention to the ECB meeting helps to draw EUR/USD above 1.18. Weak elements of the Australian labor market report and disappointment in Chinese data bring pressure on AUD. Weak data from China push the equity market down in Asia. Japanese Nikkei 225 loses 0.7%, and the Chinese Shanghai Composite drops by 0.5%.

An additional factor that weakens the risk appetite are trade tensions on the US-China line. Financial media reports that the US is doing work on import duties on Chinese goods. On Friday, the White House will present a final list for goods worth 50 billion USD.In the United Kingdom, the House of Commons has rejected amendments to the law on leaving the EU, which would order the government to include in the negotiations a postulate to remain in the customs union. After Tuesday's alliance, Prime Minister Tory with the Tories, such a result was predictable and does not change much in the reception of the Brexit procedure and the GBP position.Oil prices remain at night without major changes and close to two-week highs after positive DoE report from Wednesday. WTI at 66.5 USD is less than 40 cents from Wednesday's high.

On Thursday 14th of June, the event of the day is ECB interest rate decision and press conference, but the global investors will keep an eye on German CPI and Harmonized CPI data, Consumer Price Index data from France, Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data from the UK, New Housing Price Index data from Canada and Retail Sales data from the US.

AUD/USD analysis for 14/06/2018:

AUD, NZD, and emerging markets currencies remain the weakest currency at the board, weakened first by the hawkish overtone of the FOMC decision, and later by the report on the Australian labor market that did not give clear reasons for satisfaction. Although the unemployment rate fell to 5.4% from 5.6%, but the employment structure is poor. In May, 12,000 jobs were created (versus 1,000 expected), but the number of full-time jobs has shrunk by 20.6k. AUD/USD lost 10 pips after the data were published, which it quickly recovered, but another hit was a series of data from China, where retail sales, industrial production and investment expenditures were worse than expected. Currently, AUD/USD is testing 0.7560, while the level of 0.7528 is the low set after the Fed statement. The key level to the upside is seen at 0.7623 and only a sustained breakout higher would change the bias to bullish. On the other side, the key support is seen at the level of 0.7513.

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