empty
08.03.2019 03:22 PM
The fate of Britain and the pound will be decided on Tuesday

Next week, the volatility of British pound will increase as traders expect an unpredictable Brexit vote. It is noted that on Tuesday, March 12, it will become a kind of "moment of truth" for the UK and the European Union. On this day, the whole world will know whether Britain will either accept the conditions of the European Union, which is almost unbelievable, or the EU will give way to the United Kingdom. Also, another possibility is to postpone the start date of Britain's exit from the union at a later time from March 29 of this year. Theoretically, one can even expect a second referendum on the issue of British exit from the EU. However, pound fluctuations are inevitable. The most likely scenario for movement of the GBP/USD pair will range at $1.30-$1.32.

This image is no longer relevant

Recall that earlier this week, negotiations between officials of Great Britain and the European Union ended without an agreement. Theresa May sent the Attorney General and member of the ruling Conservative Party, Geoffrey Cox to Brussels to bring process the necessary changes to the Brexit deal to pass the agreement through the country's parliament.

London's desire to change the position of the backstop, which is a safety plan that guarantees a clear border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Many British parliamentarians are unhappy with this part of the Brexit deal.

Cox expects that European officials will agree to an independent arbitration of the backstop controversial position so that it can be terminated without the approval of the European Court as Brussels is against such decision.

Meanwhile, May have several days at her disposal to return the revised agreement to parliament. Each side expects the other to make concessions.

At least for now, the risk of "hard" Brexit is lessened. If the Prime Minister's deal is rejected on Tuesday, the parliament is more likely to vote for an extended exit date, while pro-European lawmakers will try to force the government to soften or cancel the "divorce". In addition, reducing the threat of exit without a transaction reduces the need for concessions from the euro block.

According to a report of Bloomberg from cited sources, the EU is ready to seek compromises. The news brought into life the British currency, which briefly soared by 40 points.

This image is no longer relevant

European officials are trying to break the deadlock negotiations and make the British a new proposal. According to sources, it implies more concessions from the bloc than promised by the European Commission Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker and EU President Donald Tusk in the January message.

However, the new initiative still does not fully meet the requirements of England, which cooled the ardor of pound fans. In general, the mood remains positive and prolongs hope and the EU is ready to wait for a response from Britain and reciprocal concessions.

In case of "hard" Brexit

Despite the optimism, the "hard" exit scenario is not excluded. This development contributes to the fall of the pound against the dollar in the $1.20 region as suggest by currency strategists who participated in the Reuters survey.

Nevertheless, the majority of respondents expressed confidence that the parties would be able to reach a compromise. Their average forecast for the GBP/USD pair at the end of March is $1.32.

Another survey by Reuters showed that the likelihood of a "hard" Brexit fell to 15%. However, in the opinion of one respondent, the pound may collapse to parity in the event of an exit without a deal.

Natalya Andreeva,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Pasaran di bawah tekanan: Apakah maksud angka KDNK China dan pengangguran AS?

Morgan Stanley meningkat selepas keuntungan suku keempat lebih tinggi UnitedHealth jatuh kerana tiada anggaran jualan suku tahunan dilepaskan Pelabur menganalisis jualan runcit, data pengangguran Indeks jatuh: Dow 0.16%, S&P 0.21%

Thomas Frank 09:31 2025-01-17 UTC+2

Mengapa Dow dan S&P 500 meningkat, sementara Nasdaq terhenti: analisis terperinci

Harga pengeluar AS meningkat secara sederhana pada bulan Disember Boeing jatuh selepas laporan penghantaran pesawat yang rendah pada tahun 2024 Eli Lilly jatuh selepas ramalan lemah untuk jualan ubat penurunan

Thomas Frank 07:45 2025-01-15 UTC+2

Apa yang Menanti JPY pada 2025?

Yen sekali lagi muncul sebagai salah satu mata wang dengan prestasi terburuk dalam G10 menjelang akhir tahun. Sejak Januari, kadar pertukarannya berbanding dolar AS telah merosot lebih daripada 10%, mencapai

Аlena Ivannitskaya 07:44 2024-12-30 UTC+2

Dow Tamatkan Kenaikan 5-Hari, S&P 500 Menurun: Keputusan Wall Street pada Hari Jumaat

Saham-Saham Jatuh dalam Jualan Besar-Besaran; Dow Mengakhiri Rentetan Kemenangan 5-Sesi Dolar Dijangka Mencapai Kenaikan Lebih 7% Setahun; Yen Menghadapi Kerugian Tahun Keempat Keuntungan Indeks 45 S&P 500 YTD Semua Ditutup

Thomas Frank 07:21 2024-12-28 UTC+2

Lonjakan Santa Claus Peroleh Momentum: Nasdaq Meningkat 1.35%

Saham Kripto Naik Seiring Kenaikan Bitcoin Pentadbiran China Janji Sokongan Ekonomi Tambahan Tumpuan Pelabur Kekal pada Prospek Fed Penanda Aras Naik pada Hari Pertama Santa Claus Rally Indeks Meningkat

Thomas Frank 06:18 2024-12-25 UTC+2

Kemenangan Mahkamah dan Kejayaan Perubatan: Qualcomm, Lilly Menyumbang kepada Sesi Positif Ketiga Wall Street

Syarikat teknologi besar mendorong Wall Street lebih tinggi Dow, Nasdaq mencatat sesi positif ketiga berturut-turut Qualcomm meningkat selepas kemenangan tuntutan mahkamah cip terhadap Arm Lilly naik selepas ubat penurunan berat

Thomas Frank 12:53 2024-12-24 UTC+2

Inflasi turun kepada 2.4%: Pasaran bertindak balas dengan keuntungan, tetapi minggu tetap mengalami kerugian

Angka PCE bagi bulan November adalah 2.4% tahunan, di bawah unjuran 2.5% Hartanah menerajui keuntungan sektor S&P Dewan Perwakilan AS akan mengundi pada Jumaat untuk mengelakkan penutupan kerajaan Indeks naik

Thomas Frank 06:21 2024-12-23 UTC+2

Adakah Fed Mengubah Permainan? Bagaimana Pasaran Bertindak Balas terhadap Isyarat Perlahan

Micron, Lennar Jatuh Selepas Keputusan Bank Mengukuh Apabila Hasil Bon A.S. Meningkat Dolar Pulih Sedikit; Emas Melantun Semula KDNK S3 Disemak Semula ke Atas Dow Naik 0.04%, S&P Turun 0.09%

Thomas Frank 08:15 2024-12-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Powell Cetuskan Jualan Besar-Besaran. EUR Jatuh ke Paras Terendah 2 Tahun. Keseimbangan menjelang Di hadapan

Pasangan EUR/USD Menjunam ke 1.0351 dengan Kejatuhan Sehari Sebanyak 1.32%. Instrumen ini mencatatkan penutupan terendahnya dalam dua tahun. Penurunan ini dicetuskan oleh kenyataan Rizab Persekutuan yang secara mengejut bersifat agresif

Anna Zotova 12:54 2024-12-19 UTC+2

Saham Asia Mengikuti Kejatuhan Wall Street: Kesan Mesyuarat Fed

Fed Potong Kadar Sebanyak 25 Mata Asas Seperti Dijangka Sektor Hartanah dan Barangan Pengguna Tidak Wajib Paling Lemah Saham Kripto Jatuh Selepas Komen Powell Saham Asia Mengikuti Kejatuhan Wall Street

Thomas Frank 10:12 2024-12-19 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.