Analisis Forex & Kajian: 25.04.2019 - USDJPY: the Bank of Japan...

25.04.2019 09:02 AM

USDJPY: the Bank of Japan left the policy unchanged. The weakness in the global economy encourages the purchases of the dollar. The oil in the trend

The US dollar, despite the lack of important fundamental statistics, continued to strengthen against a number of risky assets amid signs of weakness in the global economy.

Yesterday's weak data on Germany, as well as the preservation of interest rates by the Bank of Canada and the revision of the economic growth forecast in a negative direction, led to a decline in the EURUSD pair and USDCAD growth. The British pound also fell against the US dollar after the news that Scotland could re-vote on the issue of secession from the UK. This was stated yesterday by the head of the Scottish government. In his opinion, it is necessary to hold a second referendum on secession from the UK, if the Brexit process continues. This will preserve the independence of Scotland and remain in the EU.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it is quite likely that the pressure on the euro will remain, but will be limited, as the large sellers will start taking profits after a good downtrend. An unsuccessful update of yesterday's minimum around 1.1140 may lead to the formation of an upward correction. On the other hand, the pressure on the euro will continue until the moment of return above the level of 1.1180.

The Japanese yen strengthened its position after the Bank of Japan left the deposit rate unchanged at -0.1%, and the target yield level of 10-year bonds was around 0%. The regulator retained its commitment to acquire Japanese government bonds worth 80 trillion yen per year, adding that it will maintain extremely low-interest rates for a long period, at least until the spring of 2020. The Bank of Japan left its ETF purchases unchanged at 6 trillion yen. The forecast of the regulator has already taken into account uncertainty factors regarding economic activity and energy prices.

Oil prices showed slight volatility against the backdrop of the growth of oil reserves in the US to 18-month highs, but the black gold market did not experience strong pressure after this report. After a complete ban on imports of Iranian oil, the demand remains strong enough, which is likely to lead to a further upward trend.

Statements by the International Energy Agency about sufficient supply on the world oil market also did not return bearish sentiments to the market.

According to the US Department of Energy, oil reserves in the United States for the week from April 13 to April 19 increased by 5.5 million barrels to 460.6 million barrels. Economists had expected stocks to grow by 400,000 barrels. This suggests that the supply of oil on the world market is not as limited as previously thought.

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Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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