Analisis Forex & Kajian: 29.08.2019 - Overview of EUR/USD on August...

29.08.2019 07:30 AM

Overview of EUR/USD on August 29th. Forecast for the system "Regression Channels". The German locomotive continues to slow down

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction-down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction-down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -52.3906

The European currency paired with the dollar continues to slowly slide to two-year lows. It is seen in the illustration that each subsequent rebound from the current lows is less than the previous one. And this is another factor in favor of the fact that the bears continue to hold the market in their hands. And if so, then the euro does not have a chance at growth. What do we have on macroeconomic reports on Thursday, August 29? First, it is not too significant for the euro/dollar inflation report in Germany. It is interesting only because the slowdown in inflation in Germany (and experts predict a decline) is likely to cause a new decline in inflation in the whole of the European Union. But the EU consumer price index will have an impact on the EUR/USD pair. Secondly, these are the preliminary values of the spending index and the personal consumption expenditure price index in America. The forecasts are neutral and do not predict any changes. Thirdly, it is the annual GDP data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the second quarter. It is expected to reduce the main indicator of the state of the economy of any country from 2.1% to 2.0%. However, this data will also not be final, but only preliminary.

As a result, we have several quite important reports, but since all of them will be intermediate, the traders can be ignored. The only thing that can still attract attention is GDP. In all other respects, it will be just interesting information for market participants.

I also want to draw traders' attention to the fact that the volatility of the EUR/USD pair is now reduced, the pair passed only 25 points yesterday. 25 points are from the minimum of the day to the maximum. That is, by opening a trade near one extreme and closing it near another, traders could ideally get 20 points of profit. It is clear that such a winning potential is not very interesting for most traders, so new deals are not opening right now. The currency market is waiting for new data but cannot wait for them. Moreover, the attention of traders is shifted towards the "neighbors", the GBP/USD pair, which does not lack interesting and important information.

The technical picture looks quite clear and understandable. The pair continues to trade below the moving average line, so the mood of the forex market remains "bearish". There is no reason to expect a change in the current trend soon.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1108

R2 – 1.1169

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues to be below the moving average. Thus, it is now recommended to trade downwards with the first target of 1.1047. It is not recommended to buy euro currency right now, as both the technical and fundamental picture does not give grounds for expectations of the euro strengthening.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be considered.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - a blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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