Analisis Forex & Kajian: 02.09.2019 - Overview of EUR / USD on...

02.09.2019 10:59 AM

Overview of EUR / USD on September 2. Forecast for the system "Regression Channels". The euro will keep the downward trend on Monday

4 hour timeframe

Technical details:

The upper channel of linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lowe channel of linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -162.6729

The last trading day, week, and month was completed by the EUR / USD currency pair on an absolutely minor note. Two-year minimums were updated, and there is no end in sight to the fall of the European currency. It is not visible, because everything in the European Union speaks in favor of a further slowdown in the economy, easing monetary policy. However, this is not indicated by any factors on the basis of which we can draw the corresponding conclusions. This is indicated by specific "figures", Mario Draghi and Christine Lagarde. Last Friday, the speech of Lagarde, the future head of the ECB, brought down the European currency, and we even suggested that the European Union understands the inevitability of a trade war with America and is trying to bring down the euro as low as possible, since the speech of Lagarde was frankly not obligatory and not forced , considering that she will assume her position only after 2 months. By the way, the very threat of a trade war with Donald Trump is another fall factor for the euro, as there is reason to believe that it will have a more devastating effect on the EU.

As a result, the euro is falling, there is no correction yet, and on Monday, the downward movement of the euro / dollar pair can continue quietly. Today, in Germany and the European Union, indices of business activity in manufacturing areas will be published for August. It is believed that the value of this index above 50 indicates growth in the region, below - a decline. The current indices for Germany and the EU are 43.6 and 47.0. The recession is obvious, and forecasts for today's publications of business activity indicate the absence of changes in the industries of the EU's largest economy and, of its own, the Alliance itself. Thus, traders are unlikely to receive fundamental grounds even to close part of the "dollar" positions. Even if the forecast values for business activity are exceeded, the recession in the regions will still remain, since it is unlikely that the indices will jump sharply above 50.0. Accordingly, no one bothers to continue to fall to the level of Murray "3/8" - 1.0925. The technical picture is completely on the side of the American currency: both linear regression channels are directed downward, moving-down - down, Heiken Ashi - down.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,0986

S2 - 1.0925

S3 - 1,0864

The nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1047

R2 - 1,1108

R3 - 1,1169

Trading recommendations:

The euro / dollar continues a downward trend. Thus, it is now recommended to trade lower with the target of 1.0925. On the other hand, a turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator up will indicate a round of upward correction. It is still recommended to buy euros now, since there are no technical or fundamental reasons for this now.

In addition to the technical picture, the fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - a blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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