Analisis Forex & Kajian: 05.09.2019 - GBP/USD. 4 September. Results...

05.09.2019 12:35 AM

GBP/USD. 4 September. Results of the day. Scottish Supreme Court upholds Johnson's suspension of Parliament

4-hour timeframe

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 134p - 60p - 86p - 139p - 147p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 113p (high).

Well, dear readers. I immediately want to clarify and inform you that the Supreme Court of Scotland, which considered the case on the legitimacy of the decision of Boris Johnson to stop the Parliament, has recently decided to uphold this decision. Thus, a group of 75 deputies failed to reverse the decision of the prime minister on forced vacations. However, battles for Brexit continue in the Parliament itself. Today's meeting began with a group of 20 Conservative deputies saying that they would vote against the current government and take the side of the opposition. Another minus 20 votes for Johnson. Further, the representative of the Labor Party, Keir Starmer, said that his party would not vote for Johnson's proposals and "dance to his tune". Boris Johnson, who appeared in Parliament later on, said he was ready to hold early parliamentary elections on October 15 if deputies approve another Brexit move. This will happen if deputies vote "for" the ban on leaving the EU without a "deal" tonight. That is, they will oblige Johnson to sit again at the negotiating table with EU leaders. However, such a bill must have a duration. Most likely, the new date for Britain to exit the EU in this case will be January 21, 2020. Johnson said that he wants to conclude a "deal" with the European Union, and then leave it. Of course, the prime minister does not specify whether there are at least low chances of concluding a "deal". Boris Johnson also accused Jeremy Corbyn of disrupting negotiations with the EU, to which the Opposition leader said that there were no negotiations, so there was nothing to undermine. Corbyn also states that if Johnson does what he has done with his party in the last 24 hours with the country, then many people have something to fear. It should be noted that Corbyn's arguments sound powerful and logical. The head of the Scottish National Party, Ian Blackford, said that Johnson "acts like a dictator." According to him, the people of Great Britain did not vote for Brexit without a deal. These arguments also look very strong. Philip Hammond, a former Tory, said Brexit without a "deal" would be a disaster for Britain. He also said that even if Johnson makes a "deal" with the EU, which he is talking about tomorrow, he still will not have enough time until October 31 to implement all the necessary aspects. Hammond also notes that in the European Union they do not know and have not seen any proposals from Johnson that could even be discussed. That is, what kind of deal the prime minister is counting on is not clear. At the moment, this is all the news from the British Parliament. Voting on a bill prohibiting a country's exit from the EU without an agreement will take place in a few hours.

The British pound reacts very positively to reports from Parliament. Most likely, in the evening, British MPs will vote "for" the transfer of Brexit to a later date. Yes, it will look like a pun, but this is the only chance to save the country from a "catastrophe", according to most MPs. Since the probability of a Brexit delay is high, the likelihood of delaying the "hard" Brexit is also high, and this is exactly what the pound needs to gain confidence.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its strong upward movement. Buying the pair now is still dangerous since the situation is unstable. But still, if the pound overcomes the Senkou Span B line, then the longs can be opened in small lots with the target of 1.2264. At the same time, one should not forget about the correction, since the pound has been growing non-stop for two days now.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be considered.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

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