Analisis Forex & Kajian: 26.11.2021 - Bitcoin updates its local...

26.11.2021 04:18 PM

Bitcoin updates its local minimum and is approaching a rebound point

The cryptocurrency market, following the stock markets, fits perfectly into the timings and begins the second wave of correction. The main catalyst for the fall of the entire market was Bitcoin, which began to decline after the obvious uncertainty of buyers. Now the coin has slowed down in the support area, but there is every reason to believe that the market will try to play on the decline and buy back the price in a more profitable and safe zone.

Most likely, the price will continue to decline towards the final segment of this correction in the $53.7k area. Not far from this zone, there is a Fibo level of 0.5, which is also a powerful support zone. However, as of 10:00 UTC, the coin found a local support zone near $54.5k, near which the 0.5 Fibo line runs. Taking this into account, we can assume two scenarios for the development of events.

In the first case, Bitcoin will touch the 0.5 Fibo line and bounce into the upper range of the current correction, above $57k. In this case, the price has the potential to grow further, to the $60k mark. Then the problems begin, as the price has not crossed the area around $61k for more than two weeks, where the buying area is concentrated and the Fibo level of 0.236 passes. Most likely, there will be a price rebound back to the range of $56k-$58k in this area.

There is another option that should be considered at the current level of volatility. Buyers accumulate all their resources and squeeze out the price above $62k, which breaks the corrective structure and creates a powerful upside potential.

At the same time, the technical indicators of the cryptocurrency signal the continued downward dynamics and the absence of prospects for the development of even a local upward impulse. However, recall that the end of November is a particularly volatile period for Bitcoin, which was shown by the current decline, and therefore the rebound cannot be denied. I suppose that the buyback of current positions can begin when the price stabilizes after a strong impulse movement. But so far the charts do not confirm the likelihood of such a rebound.

There is a second option, it is more radical, but pleasant for those who want to play on the rise. The price continues to fluctuate in the current range, testing the 0.5 Fibo level around $53.9k several times, followed by a confident bearish breakout of this area. In the future, we can expect the price to fall to the lower border of the range and rebound from the 0.618 Fibo level, but I suppose that the massive buyback will begin much earlier.

If the $53.9k mark is broken, I expect a massive activation of buyers and the opening of long positions. Taking this into account, the price will be allowed to reach $53.6k, after which a strong upward impulse will follow. Then the price will jump from the Fibo levels, and the completion of the main recovery period will be marked by a bullish flag at the top of $62k.

Taking into account the significantly increased volatility, I assume that Bitcoin will continue to decline with a small probability of a rebound. The market is scared because of such a sharp decline, and therefore the buy-off for speculative purposes will be in higher positions, which makes the exit from the current range more calm.

At the beginning of the upward movement, sharp price pullbacks can be expected due to the activation of retail and speculative traders. But in general, Black Friday sums up the correction period before updating historical highs.

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Crypto-currencies

Artem Petrenko,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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