Futures on US stock indices rose slightly on Thursday, but this is more likely due to a slight pullback of the market after a series of unprofitable sessions in a row. After reviewing the plans of the Federal Reserve System to tighten monetary policy, which were disclosed in detail in yesterday's minutes of the March meeting, optimism has diminished. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 30 points or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%.
Yesterday, the Fed published the minutes of its March meeting, which, although it did not turn out to be something unexpected, however, opened its eyes to how officials are going to deal with the bloated balance sheet. As it became known, the Federal Reserve System is likely to start reducing its balance sheet by $ 95 billion every month. This will further tighten monetary policy, as the central bank plans to further raise interest rates to counter the highest inflation in four decades. The March protocol states that many officials were already in favor of raising rates by half a percent, but still voted to change the rate by a quarter-point in light of Russia's military special operation on the territory of Ukraine. It is noteworthy that Fed policymakers considered several half-point increases at once, which may be appropriate in the future.
Immediately after the publication of the protocol, the Dow fell by more than 100 points, while the S&P 500 dropped by 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite technology completely lost another 2.2%.
Considering what uncertainty with interest rate increases awaits investors in the future, and everything depends on inflation data in the United States, I expect volatility to persist and further correction of the market to the area of more acceptable levels for purchase, which we will talk about below. Given that the geopolitical situation has deteriorated again, there is much less optimism in the market. Today, there was news that Ukraine has submitted a new draft agreement with Russia, and there is a departure from the proposals made in Istanbul. This was stated by Sergey Lavrov. The Russian Foreign Minister also said that the new version of the agreement does not state that Ukraine's security guarantees apply to Crimea and Sevastopol. The minister also called unacceptable the fact that Ukraine is putting forward all new preconditions.
Against this background, crude oil prices rose again after falling in the previous session. US crude added 0.7% to $ 96.94 per barrel, while international Brent crude rose 0.9% to $ 101.95. Weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released today. An increase of 200,000 is expected. However, it is unlikely that this data will have a serious impact on the markets.
Premarket
HP Inc shares rose 15% in premarket trading after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced its stake in the technology equipment maker. Most likely, with the opening of the regular session, the demand for shares will remain.
Papers JD.com fell 1.1% in the premarket after the news that the company's founder Richard Liu left the post of chief executive officer, and President Xu Lei will become the new CEO. Liu will remain chairman.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500
Yesterday, the bulls missed $ 4,488 and now we need to think about how to return to this level. There is a lot of pessimism, and most likely an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above $ 4,488 at the beginning of trading will result in another sale. In this case, the bulls will have to defend the nearest support of $ 4,433. Having missed this range, you can say goodbye to growth and it is best in this case to postpone the purchase of a trading instrument to the lows: $ 4,383 and $ 4,319. It is possible to talk about the return of the market under the control of buyers only in case of consolidation above $4,488, which will allow the return potential to reach the nearest resistance of $ 4,539. Its breakdown will open the way to the highs: $ 4,589 and $ 4,637.
