empty
20.04.2022 11:45 AM
Review of USD, CAD, and JPY: Rising US Treasury yields create stable demand for USD

Markets continue to be dominated by rapid growth in US yields, with 10-year UST approaching close to 3%, which contributes to a steady increase in demand for the dollar. Assumptions began to be voiced that the Fed may raise rates not by 50 but by 75 points at its June meeting, and rate futures show a 39% probability of just such a move as of Wednesday morning.

Dynamics in favor of the US dollar.

USDCAD

The Bank of Canada, as predicted, raised the rate by 0.5% for the first time in 22 years, also announcing the beginning of quantitative tightening (QT) on April 25, which will eventually lead to a reduction in the balance sheet. The accompanying statement was hawkish, it is expected that at the meeting on June 1, the rate will be raised by another 0.5%, and by the end of the year, it will be brought to at least 2%.

The GDP forecast remains positive despite global risks. The BoC expects real GDP at 4.2% this year and 3.2% next. As for inflation, the forecast has been revised upwards, and data for March is expected at 6.1% YoY, which is less than in the US, but the trend is obvious.

This image is no longer relevant

Higher interest rates will make borrowing and servicing accumulated debt more expensive, but this is a problem that all major economies will face except Japan, where efforts to keep yields below the target continue.

The net long position in CAD, as follows from the CFTC report, increased during the reporting week by 407 million, to 962 million. The excess is not expressed. Moreover, the dynamics of UST yield growth outpaces the growth of yields in Canada, which levels out the advantage in futures.

This image is no longer relevant

The Canadian dollar has been trading in a range for several months now, its exit is not yet ripe. Given the tightening of the position of the Bank of Canada and the growing likelihood of a continuation of the price rally, a movement to a local minimum of 1.24 looks more likely.

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen is rapidly depreciating as the Bank of Japan is the only bank in the major economies that is focused not on fighting global inflation, but on curbing profitability. Again and again, the BoJ buys bonds at a fixed price as soon as the 10-year yield approaches the 2.5% target, which leads to additional liquidity in the market. The Fed announces a decrease in available liquidity and an increase in the cost of financial services, while the Bank of Japan announces the preservation of financial policy.

As a result, the yen went to a 20-year low. The monetary policy of the BoJ will undoubtedly change, because if it is maintained, then by the summer it will be possible to see the rate of 140 and above, but this will not happen in the near future.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told the Upper House plenary meeting on April 15 that "the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is conducting monetary policy to achieve its 2% inflation target, not to manipulate currency rates."

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that "we need to take into account the negative effect" of the weak yen but stresses that he hasn't changed his mind that a weaker yen is a positive factor for the economy as a whole.

Thus, we must proceed from the fact that there are no objective factors for the strengthening of the yen.

The net short position on the yen rose by 648 million in the reporting week, a bearish margin of -11.149 billion. Speculators continue to bet on the weakening of the yen.

This image is no longer relevant

The bullish momentum has not yet been exhausted, with the January 2002 high at 135.19 now the main target. Even 3 months ago, such an assumption would have been absolute fantasy.

Ringkasan
Segera
Analitic
Evgeny Klimov
Mulakan perdagangan
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Bank Pusat Eropah Mungkin Menangguhkan Pemotongan Kadar Sehingga Disember

Walaupun euro berusaha untuk melakukan pembetulan terhadap dolar A.S., satu tinjauan oleh ahli ekonomi mencadangkan bahawa Bank Pusat Eropah mungkin akan menangguhkan pengurangan kadar faedah terakhirnya sehingga Disember. Kebanyakan responden

Jakub Novak 11:37 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Powell Bertindak Balas terhadap Kritikan Rumah Putih

Kebelakangan ini, Pengerusi Rizab Persekutuan Jerome Powell berdepan tekanan yang semakin meningkat apabila menerima kritikan daripada penggubal undang-undang, Rumah Putih, serta Presiden Amerika Syarikat, Donald Trump. Dalam sepucuk surat yang

Jakub Novak 11:26 2025-07-18 UTC+2

AS mula Mengawal Selia Pasaran Mata Wang Digital (Potensi Pembetulan dalam Bitcoin dan EUR/USD)

Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Amerika Syarikat telah meluluskan rang undang-undang yang mewujudkan rangka kerja persekutuan pertama untuk stablecoin yang disokong oleh dolar dan menetapkan peraturan untuk mata wang digital lain. Idea

Pati Gani 09:28 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Pasaran Memihak kepada Dolar yang Lemah

Apakah yang lebih baik untuk S&P 500 selain dari pemotongan kadar faedah oleh Rizab Persekutuan ketika ekonomi masih kekal kukuh? Gabungan data positif pasaran buruh dan jualan runcit, ditambah dengan

Marek Petkovich 09:28 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 18 Julai? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Analisis Laporan Makroekonomi: Beberapa laporan makroekonomi dijadualkan untuk dikeluarkan pada hari Jumaat, tetapi tiada satupun yang begitu penting. Satu-satunya keluaran yang patut diberi perhatian ialah Indeks Sentimen Pengguna Universiti Michigan

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 18 Julai: Adakah Pasaran Sudah Letih dengan Dolar dan Trump?

ChatGPT said: Pasangan Mata Wang GBP/USD sekali lagi menunjukkan kecenderungan untuk menyusut pada hari Khamis. Selepas pound Britain mengukuh pada petang Rabu susulan satu lagi laporan mengenai pemecatan Powell, dolar

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 18 Julai: Trump Akan Terus Mencuba untuk Memecat Powell untuk Satu Tahun Lagi

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD meneruskan penurunan berterusannya sepanjang hari Khamis. Sebagai peringatan, pasaran forex mengalami "lonjakan" pada petang Rabu. Donald Trump sekali lagi cuba untuk memecat Jerome Powell atau memaksanya

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Kisah Penuh Sindiran, Kekeliruan, dan Drama Bertali Arus

Sejak Donald Trump meneruskan usahanya untuk menyingkirkan Jerome Powell dari jawatan Pengerusi FOMC, adalah berbaloi untuk memerhatikan topik ini dengan lebih dekat. Semua berita terkini sudah diketahui oleh para peserta

Chin Zhao 00:26 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Aliran Menurun dalam USD/CAD Hampir Sampai ke Penghujungnya

Indeks Harga Pengguna Kanada meningkat dari 1.7% y/y kepada 1.9% pada bulan Jun, manakala inflasi teras meningkat dari 2.5% y/y kepada 2.7%. Pertumbuhan ini kekal dalam julat yang boleh diterima

Kuvat Raharjo 00:26 2025-07-18 UTC+2

AUD/USD: Kejatuhan Buat Dolar Australia

Dolar Australia mencatat kejatuhan ketara berbanding dolar AS pada hari Khamis, dengan harga mencecah paras terendah tempatan yang baharu. Penurunan ini bukan sahaja didorong oleh pengukuhan menyeluruh dolar AS, tetapi

Irina Manzenko 00:25 2025-07-18 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.