Analisis Forex & Kajian: 23.04.2022 - Is there a high probability...

23.04.2022 10:09 PM

Is there a high probability of a new fall in bitcoin due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in Ukraine?

On the 4-hour TF, the technical picture for bitcoin is more eloquent. After the cryptocurrency quotes fell below the ascending trend line, a new downward trend began to form. However, this week bitcoin was unable to continue falling and spent most of the time inside the side channel, the middle of which is the level of $ 40,746, which we now consider a pivot. In the near future, a descending trend line may be formed, which will facilitate an understanding of what is happening. So far, we can say that market participants have taken a break and are waiting. Perhaps they are just waiting, perhaps they are waiting for new important messages or events. Unfortunately, they can wait for them.

The geopolitical conflict in Ukraine will only escalate in the coming weeks.

After the "first phase" of the "special operation" was completed, during which Russian troops failed to "take Kyiv in three days", as well as any other city in the North and East of Ukraine, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the "second phase" began. Until now, it is not entirely clear what goals Moscow has achieved in the "first phase" since it is clear to the whole world that no "denazification" and "demilitarization" of the whole of Ukraine has been carried out. Now the "second phase", the purpose of which is called the expansion of the LPR and DPR to the borders of their administrative regions. How "denazification" correlates with the expansion of the LPR and the DPR at the hands of the Russian army is also unclear. But in the coming weeks, fierce battles will take place in the East of Ukraine, the outcome of which is not obvious. If two months ago even Ukraine's allies did not believe that the country would be able to stand for more than a week or two, now the whole world believes in the Ukrainian army and supplies it with almost any weapons. Thus, now the AFU is a well-equipped army with the latest Western weapons, which Ukraine simply did not have at its disposal two months ago. However, the AFU managed to repel the attacks of the Russian army from Kyiv and other cities, even with the available weapons. At least because defending is always easier than attacking. According to many military experts, to capture the whole of Ukraine, Moscow had to send at least a million troops. Now, when Ukraine has a huge number of weapons, armored vehicles, MANPADS, air defense, and so on at its disposal, it will be much easier to fight back. But all this also means that there are a lot of soldiers and civilians in the East of Ukraine, and the geopolitical situation may worsen even more. Especially if the Kremlin does not achieve a single significant victory in the East of Ukraine. Sanctions will continue to be imposed, and relations between Russia and half the world will deteriorate. Bitcoin may one day react to everything that is happening in the world. And it can react to a new fall.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" are fixed below the trend line and continue to fall. Thus, we expect a drop in cryptocurrencies with targets of $ 34,267 and $ 31,100 andq recommend selling.

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Crypto-currencies

Paolo Greco,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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