As you remember, yesterday's euro/dollar article emphasized that the current week will have an extremely strong fundamental connotation. A large number of macroeconomic indicators are expected to be released, of which the main report will be data on the US labor market, the publication of which is scheduled for Friday. But the main event will take place tomorrow when the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) announces its decision on rates, and half an hour after that, the press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will begin. There is little doubt that the Fed will raise the federal funds rate, the whole question is by how many basis points? And will Fed Chairman Jerome Powell retain his so pronounced "hawkish" rhetoric? In the meantime, the court and the case, let's briefly analyze yesterday's statistics and see what today's day has in store for us. Yesterday, investors' main attention was focused on data from the US on the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index. Let me remind you that the previous value of this indicator was 57.1, the forecast value assumed 57.6, but the actual figure was 55.4, which was the weakest growth in the US manufacturing sector in almost a year and a half.

Although the value of this index is still held above 50.0, and this is generally a positive factor, weaker than expected ISM data, coupled with recent failed data on US GDP for the first quarter, may somewhat cool the "hawkish" fervor of the Fed and force the US Central Bank to tighten monetary policy more at a restrained pace. After all, it is not for nothing that virtually every speech by high-ranking monetary officials says that further steps will depend on incoming macroeconomic indicators. It won't be long to wait, and tomorrow evening we will find out everything and understand a lot. If you look at today's economic calendar, the main events for the EUR/USD currency pair will be the eurozone unemployment data, the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde, as well as American reports on production orders, vacancy rates, and labor turnover. You can find out about all the details of these and other events by looking at the economic calendar.

Daily

Despite weak data on the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index, the US dollar resumed its strengthening against the single European currency after a slight corrective decline shown last Friday. However, as can be seen on the daily price chart, yesterday's decline in EUR/USD did not bring any drastic changes. The main currency pair continues to hold in the current range of 1.0472 (lows on April 28) and 1.0593 (highs on April 29). In my personal opinion, the pair's exit from this range will indicate its prospects, at least for the near future. A breakdown of the resistance of 1.0593 and consolidation above 1.0600 will indicate that the Eurobucks are ready to continue the course correction to 1.0636, 1.0700, and 1.0745. If the lower limit of the current range, the level of 1.0472, is broken, it will become clear that 1.0593 is all that the players could achieve to increase the rate, which means that the most likely will be the continuation of the downward dynamics in the area of 1.0420-1.0400 and possibly lower towards the price zone 1.0370-1.0320. In the current situation, I still recommend waiting for at least some kind of corrective pullback up, after which the appearance of bearish candles at smaller time intervals will signal the opening of short positions on EUR/USD.