Analisis Forex & Kajian: 03.06.2022

03.06.2022 12:47 PM

Bitcoin still afloat

Bitcoin does not generate interest income like bonds. It does not make dividends like stocks. Against the backdrop of the cryptocurrency market capitalization surging 19-fold from March 2020 to November 2021 to $2.9 trillion, its leader was interesting as a fast-growing asset. Its high volatility also attracted attention. However, the ensuing winter-spring sell-off, followed by a consolidation near $30,000, caused BTC to lose its appeal. To the delight of its fans, it survived. This is already good news and a reason to speculate about the outlook.

As an asset that does not bring interest and dividend earnings, Bitcoin is more like gold. Precious metal has intrinsic value, and its reserves are limited in nature. It is not for nothing that a process such as capital spillover from the gold market to the cryptocurrency market is used to justify the fall of the XAU/USD pair. These are similar assets, but investors perceive the token as a risky instrument. This can explain its high correlation with the Nasdaq Composite. By the way, this correlation decreased for a while as the US market grew, encouraged by rumors of a September pause in the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle, while the BTC/USD pair has long recovered amid the panic caused by the stablecoin crash.

BTC and gold price change

The reasons for the deterioration of the correlation were cited as the outflow of some major players from the cryptocurrency market, as well as the industry specifics of the exchange rate of the index of technology companies. However, the correlation soon recovered, allowing us to return to the topic of speculation about the future of Bitcoin considering the US stock market.

The latter has much to worry about, including a slowing US economy, aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, and worsening corporate reporting. Nevertheless, excessive pessimism can eventually turn to growth. The American Association of Individual Investors conducts a weekly survey showing what to expect from the market in the next 6 months. When bears outperform bulls by more than 30 pips, it can mean the worst times are over.

US Investor Sentiment, % Bull-Bear Spread

According to Bloomberg experts, the flagship cryptocurrency may reach a low point in the near future. However, DailyFX does not advise buying it until the price rises above $40,000.

On the daily chart, the BTC/USD pair began to implement the bearish pattern, which we discussed in the previous article. Nevertheless, bulls did not have enough strength to move the pair above the pivot level of $32,300. Currently, the blue pattern of the Widening Wedge may be formed. This requires the asset to hit a new low, the formation of the point 4 with the subsequent growth above $29,500, which will be the reason for opening long positions on Bitcoin.

BTC/USD, daily chart

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Fundamental analysis

Marek Petkovich,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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