empty
18.07.2022 05:50 PM
GBPUSD bulls went on a counterattack

Despite the retreat of the US dollar against major world currencies at the end of the week by July 15 and Reuters experts' forecasts of its 8% weakening in 12 months, the dollar does not look like a colossus with feet of clay. The same experts expect it to strengthen over the next three months, and the US economy looks better than, for example, the European one. For the GBPUSD, the situation is aggravated by political uncertainty—there is no clear leader among the candidates for the post of prime minister after Boris Johnson left it.

The next debate, which will eliminate two candidates out of five, and a busy economic calendar, attracts well-deserved attention to the sterling. Releases of data on the labor market, inflation, retail sales, and business activity will show the state of the UK economy and whether it can withstand a 50 bps repo rate increase in August. Markets estimate the probability of such an outcome at 79%, so the Bank of England may have to retreat from its plan for a slow increase in borrowing costs, which it adhered to at five previous meetings.

In this regard, the key event of the week of July 22 is the statistics on consumer prices. According to Bloomberg experts, they will accelerate from 9.1% to 9.3%. At the same time, core inflation, unlike the US, does not yet think of slowing down. This forces BoE to act decisively, especially since four out of five candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party propose tax cuts, which will support economic growth, but at the same time further disperse the CPI.

Dynamics of British inflation and Bank of England rates

This image is no longer relevant

Traders working with the GBPUSD should keep in mind such events as the political crisis in Italy and the complete shutdown of Russian gas transit to Europe, which will increase the risks of a recession not only in the eurozone but throughout the world, and will contribute to an increase in demand for safe-haven assets, primarily on the US dollar. Even though, according to the Bank of America model, the dollar is significantly overvalued, and history shows that it usually strengthened in the lead-up to the Fed's monetary restriction cycle and then began to weaken during the increase in the federal funds rate, this time it is different. The determination of the Fed and the unprecedented interest in safe-haven assets have made the dollar king in Forex.

This image is no longer relevant

The GBPUSD pullback may be due to a decrease in the probability of a Fed rate hike at the July meeting by 100 bps from almost 90% to 30%, the growth of American stock indices, and hopes for aggressive actions by the Bank of England. All these factors are temporary. Structural changes are taking place in the British economy against the background of the energy crisis, which cannot but affect the sterling.

Technically, there is a steady downward trend on the GBPUSD daily chart. Rebound from resistances at 1.197, 1.201 and 1.208 should be used to form short positions.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

XAU/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Hari ini, emas masih berada di bawah tekanan; bagaimanapun, beberapa faktor menghadkan penurunan lebih lanjut. Jangkaan bahawa tarif yang dikenakan oleh Presiden Amerika Syarikat Donald Trump akan menyokong inflasi

Irina Yanina 19:23 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Apakah yang perlu ditonton pada 8 Julai? Gambaran Keseluruhan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Tinjauan Laporan Makroekonomi: Tiada penerbitan makroekonomi dijadualkan pada hari Selasa. Namun begitu, tidak dapat dikatakan bahawa pasaran sunyi pada hari Isnin walaupun tiada acara makroekonomi utama—masih terdapat cukup banyak berita

Paolo Greco 11:19 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Pasaran Diberi Ruang Bernafas Selepas Tarikh Akhir Tarif Ditunda ke Bulan Ogos

Tidak perlu panik. Pasaran hanya bersikap berhati-hati terhadap tindakan Rumah Putih yang kembali mengenakan tarif yang diumumkan pada Hari Kemerdekaan Amerika. Donald Trump telah menghantar surat kepada pelbagai negara dengan

Marek Petkovich 10:14 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan GBP/USD pada 8 Julai 2025

Pasangan GBP/USD mengalami sedikit penurunan pada hari Isnin, namun masih terlalu awal untuk menyatakan bahawa trend menurun telah bermula. Dari sudut teknikal, pasangan ini kekal berada di bawah garisan purata

Paolo Greco 08:55 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD pada 8 Julai, 2025

Pada hari Isnin, pasangan mata wang EUR/USD didagangkan dengan kecenderungan penurunan, walaupun kemungkinan tiada alasan kukuh bagi dolar untuk mengukuh semula. Ingatlah bahawa semasa hujung minggu, Donald Trump sekali lagi

Paolo Greco 08:37 2025-07-08 UTC+2

GBP/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

Semasa sesi dagangan Eropah pada hari Isnin, pasangan mata wang GBP/JPY menghampiri tahap 198.30. Pasangan ini mendapat sokongan daripada data perumahan UK: pada bulan Jun, harga rumah meningkat sebanyak 2.5%

Irina Yanina 19:40 2025-07-07 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Risiko Geopolitik Mungkin Memberikan Sokongan Tambahan kepada Logam Berharga Sebagai Perlindungan

Hari ini, emas menunjukkan nada penurunan intraday walaupun telah membuat lantunan dari paras $3300. Permintaan yang semakin kukuh terhadap dolar AS kekal sebagai faktor utama yang memberi tekanan ke atas

Irina Yanina 19:09 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Bitcoin Menjalani Kehidupan yang Bergelora

Di bawah permukaan tenang BTC/USD terdapat arus bawah air yang bergelora yang membentuk semula struktur pasaran mata wang kripto. Air yang tenang jangan disangka tiada gelora. Di permukaan, keadaan dalam

Marek Petkovich 15:48 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pasangan USD/JPY mengekalkan kecenderungan menaik, kekal berada di atas paras psikologi 145.00, mencerminkan tekanan jualan intrahari terhadap yen Jepun berikutan pengukuhan dolar AS. Para pelabur bimbang bahawa ketegangan perdagangan yang

Irina Yanina 12:59 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pada hari Isnin, pasangan USD/CAD meneruskan pergerakan menaiknya untuk hari kedua berturut-turut. Kenaikan ini didorong oleh gabungan beberapa faktor. Harga minyak mentah pada mulanya menurun berikutan keputusan tidak dijangka oleh

Irina Yanina 12:39 2025-07-07 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.