empty
24.11.2022 03:31 PM
DXY: Near-term outlook

The dollar remained under pressure on Thursday after the release of the US PMI business activity index on Wenesday, which showed a slowdown in November. According to the S&P Global Market Intelligence report, the US manufacturing activity index fell to 47.6 in November from 50.4 in October, which was also worse than the forecast of 50.

"Contributing to the decrease in the headline figure was a renewed fall in output and a sharper decline in new orders," S&P Global commented. They said "inflationary pressures should continue to cool in the months ahead, potentially markedly, but the economy meanwhile continues to head deeper into a likely recession."

"According to preliminary PMI survey data, the rate of decline in manufacturing and demand has increased, corresponding to a 1 percent year-over-year contraction in the economy," S&P Global also noted.

Business activity in the US services sector also continued to decline at an accelerating pace in early November, with the S&P Global Services PMI falling to 46.1 from 47.8 in October, worse than expected at 47.9. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, new orders fell at a significant pace in November. The second consecutive monthly decline in new orders was the sharpest since May 2020.

Wednesday's negative investor sentiment was also exacerbated by the weekly report from the US Department of Labor: initial jobless claims came in at 240,000, worse than market expectations of 225,000 and 223,000 a week earlier.

This block of negative macro statistics affected market participants more than the positive report of the US Census Bureau, also published on Wednesday, which showed orders for durable goods in the US increased by 1% in October, against a September growth of 0.3% and market expectations of a 0.4% increase. "Excluding transport, new orders increased by 0.5%. Excluding the defense industry, new orders rose 0.8%," the US Census Bureau reported.

On Thursday, additional pressure on the dollar came from the release (at 19:00 GMT) of minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting, which showed that most of the US central bank's leadership supports the idea of slowing the pace of rate hikes in the near future. At the same time, inflation expectations in the US are declining.

Market participants now expect the Fed rate hike in December by 50 basis points. According to the CME Group, that probability is currently 76%.

Thus, the dollar is likely to remain under pressure on Thursday and in the coming days, especially given the Thanksgiving holiday period (today and tomorrow) in the US and the low activity of traders in that regard.

Today and tomorrow's economic calendar is also not rich with important macro statistics. In the meantime, market participants who follow the euro today will pay attention to the publication (12:30 GMT) of the minutes from the November ECB meeting.

This document contains an overview of the current policy of the ECB with planned changes in the financial and monetary areas. The publication of this document may cause a surge in volatility in trading in the euro and on the European stock market, and investors will carefully study the text of the protocols in order to catch additional signals regarding the prospects for the ECB's monetary policy.

As noted in our recent review, if the publication of US inflation data disappoints investors, it will provoke a new wave of dollar sell-offs and a drop in DXY towards 109.00. At that time, DXY futures were trading near 110.46, maintaining a negative momentum and moving in the lower part of the descending channel that formed last month (on the DXY chart).

This image is no longer relevant

A break of these levels could trigger a deeper drop in DXY, down to the key support levels of 107.40, 105.65, we assumed. Actually, this happened: the price broke through the lower border of the descending channel on the DXY chart at 109.00 and reached a local low of 105.15 in the next three days.

But this does not mean the dollar's decline will be more prolonged. At the very least, the 105.00 level should keep the DXY index from falling deeper, economists say, especially given growing concerns about new outbreaks of coronavirus, the ongoing geopolitical crisis in Europe and the risks of a recession in the largest economies of the world. In this situation, economists assume that the dollar should again win as a popular defensive asset.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Kelemahan Berterusan Dolar Kembali Menjadi Fokus Pelabur (USD/JPY dan Indeks Dolar Berisiko Terus Menurun)

Pasaran masih dikuasai oleh tema rundingan antara Iran dan Israel, yang pada mulanya dimulakan oleh Amerika Syarikat. Sama ada persetujuan sebenar dicapai atau tidak, ini akan memberi kesan ketara kepada

Pati Gani 09:19 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Pasaran Telah Menemui Penawar Untuk Segala Masalah

Nampaknya segala-galanya berpihak kepada kehendak Donald Trump. Kejayaan Presiden AS di Timur Tengah telah membawa kepada satu perspektif baharu terhadap dasar-dasar yang dilaksanakan oleh pentadbiran Amerika. Ternyata — ia berkesan

Marek Petkovich 09:04 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 26 Jun? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Analisis Laporan Makroekonomi: Hanya sedikit laporan makroekonomi yang dijadualkan untuk hari Khamis, dan pasaran sepanjang minggu ini telah menunjukkan niat yang jelas untuk meneruskan aliran menaik yang telah berlanjutan selama

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 26 Jun: 9 Julai Semakin Menghampiri

Pasangan mata wang GBP/USD kekal mendatar hampir sepanjang hari Rabu. Mari kita ingat semula isyarat teknikal lama: jika harga mencatat kemas kini pada ekstrem penting dan kemudian segera berundur, terdapat

Paolo Greco 03:39 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 26 Jun: Jerome Powell Tidak Mengatakan Apa-apa yang Baru

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD kekal tenang sepenuhnya sepanjang hari Rabu. Mari kita ingat bahawa minggu ini bermula dengan ribut, yang tentunya dicetuskan oleh Donald Trump, yang pertama sekali mengumumkan gencatan

Paolo Greco 03:39 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Euro Kembali Menguasai Inisiatif

Euro sedang berusaha untuk meneruskan pergerakan menaiknya, walaupun tidak banyak alasan ekonomi yang menyokong senario ini. Inflasi pada bulan Mei meningkat selaras dengan jangkaan ECB, yang hanya memperkukuhkan kes untuk

Kuvat Raharjo 00:43 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Dolar Di Ambang Bahaya

Pasaran bersedia untuk gencatan senjata di Timur Tengah. Tetapi adakah mereka bersedia untuk kembalinya perang perdagangan? Pelabur telah mempercayai pengekalan tarif import universal tanpa kembali kepada tarif khusus mengikut negara

Marek Petkovich 00:42 2025-06-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Mencabar Had: Pembeli Menyasarkan Tahap Rintangan 1.1630

Untuk hari kedua berturut-turut, pasangan EUR/USD sedang menguji tahap 1.16, menekan tahap rintangan 1.1630 (garis atas penunjuk Bollinger Bands pada carta masa D1). Perkembangan geopolitik dan komen dari Jerome Powell

Irina Manzenko 19:03 2025-06-25 UTC+2

Yen Kembali Beraksi

Yen gagal dalam ujian sebagai mata wang pelindung nilai. Konflik antara Israel dan Iran telah mencetuskan pembetulan dalam pasangan USD/JPY ke arah aliran penurunan. Sepanjang sebahagian besar tahun ini, para

Marek Petkovich 18:55 2025-06-25 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Yen Jepun Melemah di Tengah Penyusutan Permintaan terhadap Aset Perlindungan

Buat masa ini, yen masih kekal dibayangi oleh dolar AS. Dari sudut dasar domestik Bank of Japan (BoJ), ringkasan mesyuarat bulan Jun menunjukkan bahawa sebahagian pembuat dasar memilih untuk mengekalkan

Irina Yanina 18:46 2025-06-25 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.